This June 2008 issue of OECD's twice-yearly OECD Economic Outlook provides analysis of recent economic developments and economic projections for OECD and major non-OECD countries through the end of 2008. Its comprehensive statistical annex is a useful reference tool for international economic comparisons. The special chapter examines the implications of supply-side uncertainties for economic policy.
Economic growth decelerated sharply late in 2007 mainly because of faltering exports and manufacturing output. Growth is projected to remain weak until spring 2009 as US demand stagnates, but no recession is expected. The current account may dip deeper into deficit, and the general government fiscal balance may show a small deficit as well, as both tax cuts and the business cycle eat into government revenues. Economic growth is expected to bounce back in 2009 when credit market difficulties are worked out and the US economy recovers.