1887

OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis

The Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis has been discontinued as of 24 June 2016. This journal was published jointly with CIRET from 2004 to 2015. For more information see www.ciret.org/jbcy.

Anglais

Mots-clés: business tendency, economic measurement, economic statistics, cyclical indicators, business surveys, business cycles, economic research, business investment, consumer surveys, economic indicators, economic cycle, cyclical fluctuations, short-term, economic analysis

Construction of composite business cycle indicators in a scarce data environment

A case study for Abu Dhabi

Business cycle indicators are important instruments for monitoring economic development. When employing indicators one usually relies on a sound statistical database. This paper deals with indicator development in a scarce data situation. Indicator building is merged with temporal disaggregation, which is often used by statistical offices. The discussed tools are applied in a case study for Abu Dhabi. Because the economy of Abu Dhabi is very dependent on oil, real income reflects the economic situation better than real gross domestic product (GDP). For this reason a measure of real gross domestic income (GDI) was chosen as reference series.

Keywords: Business cycle indicators, temporal disaggregation, terms of trade, oilproducing countries

JEL code: E01, E32, C22

Anglais

JEL: C22: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Single Equation Models; Single Variables / Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; E01: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / General / Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts; E32: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles / Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error