Mali experienced a sharp decline in agricultural production in 2011 due to irregular rainfall and its unfavourable distribution in time and place. This was compounded by external shocks, including the post-election crisis in Côte d’Ivoire, the Libya war and rising oil and food prices. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth stood at 1.1% in 2011. The poor performance was mainly due to the decline in food production (-16%), which represents almost a quarter of GDP, and especially in rice production (-25%). Growth is expected to reach 6.9% in 2012 and 5.2% in 2013, provided that the crop year is good, that gold and cotton prices rise and that trade with Côte d’Ivoire increases. But forecasts for 2012-13 are overshadowed by uncertainty as a result of political upheaval following the coup and the violence that broke out at the start of 2012.