OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026
Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017
3.A1.1 | World cereal projections | ||||||||||||
3.A1.1 | World cereal projections | ||||||||||||
Marketing year | |||||||||||||
| | | Average 2014-16est | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| WHEAT | ||||||||||||
| World | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 742.1 | 744.2 | 755.5 | 763.3 | 771.4 | 780.0 | 788.1 | 796.3 | 804.4 | 812.4 | 820.8 |
| Area | Mha | 222.7 | 222.8 | 223.5 | 224.0 | 224.4 | 224.9 | 225.3 | 225.6 | 226.0 | 226.4 | 226.7 |
| Yield | t/ha | 3.33 | 3.34 | 3.38 | 3.41 | 3.44 | 3.47 | 3.50 | 3.53 | 3.56 | 3.59 | 3.62 |
| Consumption | Mt | 722.4 | 754.2 | 753.2 | 760.6 | 767.9 | 775.9 | 783.2 | 791.1 | 798.9 | 806.9 | 815.3 |
| Feed use | Mt | 138.5 | 148.5 | 146.4 | 148.0 | 149.8 | 152.0 | 153.9 | 155.9 | 157.8 | 159.9 | 162.3 |
| Food use | Mt | 491.5 | 507.1 | 512.8 | 517.7 | 522.4 | 527.3 | 532.3 | 537.1 | 542.1 | 547.0 | 551.9 |
| Biofuel use | Mt | 13.1 | 13.2 | 13.6 | 13.7 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 13.3 |
| Other use | Mt | 79.2 | 85.5 | 80.4 | 81.3 | 82.2 | 83.2 | 83.5 | 84.7 | 85.6 | 86.5 | 87.8 |
| Exports | Mt | 165.8 | 168.8 | 173.9 | 176.5 | 178.5 | 180.4 | 182.7 | 184.8 | 186.9 | 189.1 | 191.1 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 226.3 | 226.1 | 226.0 | 226.3 | 227.3 | 229.0 | 231.6 | 234.4 | 237.4 | 240.4 | 243.5 |
| Price 1 | USD/t | 207.3 | 200.5 | 202.5 | 208.2 | 215.9 | 225.3 | 232.7 | 238.5 | 243.6 | 246.2 | 248.9 |
| Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 397.5 | 396.7 | 403.7 | 407.0 | 410.8 | 414.6 | 418.0 | 421.2 | 424.4 | 427.6 | 430.9 |
| Consumption | Mt | 275.2 | 279.9 | 277.9 | 279.5 | 281.0 | 282.9 | 284.4 | 286.1 | 287.7 | 289.4 | 291.1 |
| Net trade | Mt | 115.4 | 121.4 | 126.8 | 129.0 | 130.6 | 132.0 | 133.6 | 135.0 | 136.5 | 138.1 | 139.5 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 78.4 | 81.1 | 80.1 | 78.7 | 77.8 | 77.5 | 77.5 | 77.5 | 77.7 | 77.9 | 78.3 |
| Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 344.6 | 347.4 | 351.8 | 356.3 | 360.6 | 365.4 | 370.2 | 375.1 | 380.1 | 384.8 | 389.9 |
| Consumption | Mt | 447.2 | 474.3 | 475.3 | 481.1 | 486.9 | 492.9 | 498.8 | 504.9 | 511.3 | 517.6 | 524.2 |
| Net trade | Mt | -112.9 | -119.0 | -124.3 | -126.6 | -128.2 | -129.5 | -131.2 | -132.6 | -134.1 | -135.6 | -137.0 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 147.9 | 145.0 | 145.8 | 147.6 | 149.5 | 151.5 | 154.1 | 156.8 | 159.7 | 162.6 | 165.3 |
| OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 298.0 | 294.0 | 298.2 | 300.8 | 303.4 | 306.1 | 308.4 | 310.7 | 312.8 | 315.0 | 317.1 |
| Consumption | Mt | 224.5 | 230.0 | 227.4 | 228.6 | 229.7 | 231.1 | 232.1 | 233.3 | 234.4 | 235.6 | 236.7 |
| Net trade | Mt | 68.5 | 69.2 | 71.8 | 73.7 | 74.6 | 75.4 | 76.5 | 77.4 | 78.4 | 79.4 | 80.1 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 58.7 | 58.6 | 57.5 | 56.0 | 55.2 | 54.8 | 54.6 | 54.6 | 54.6 | 54.5 | 54.7 |
| MAIZE | ||||||||||||
| World | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 1 024.7 | 1 042.4 | 1 050.8 | 1 066.2 | 1 078.9 | 1 096.0 | 1 109.7 | 1 123.0 | 1 136.0 | 1 149.4 | 1 163.7 |
| Area | Mha | 177.9 | 178.0 | 178.0 | 178.7 | 179.0 | 179.9 | 180.4 | 180.8 | 181.0 | 181.4 | 181.8 |
| Yield | t/ha | 5.76 | 5.85 | 5.90 | 5.96 | 6.03 | 6.09 | 6.15 | 6.21 | 6.28 | 6.34 | 6.40 |
| Consumption | Mt | 1 015.1 | 1 041.3 | 1 058.3 | 1 072.2 | 1 083.2 | 1 096.0 | 1 106.6 | 1 119.6 | 1 132.1 | 1 147.0 | 1 161.2 |
| Feed use | Mt | 574.1 | 600.9 | 609.3 | 621.7 | 629.9 | 642.1 | 650.8 | 662.2 | 672.8 | 683.8 | 695.4 |
| Food use | Mt | 131.5 | 135.7 | 137.9 | 140.0 | 142.1 | 144.4 | 146.8 | 149.2 | 151.5 | 153.9 | 156.3 |
| Biofuel use | Mt | 167.5 | 176.6 | 181.0 | 181.4 | 183.4 | 182.8 | 182.7 | 182.3 | 181.9 | 181.5 | 180.8 |
| Other use | Mt | 99.0 | 84.0 | 85.4 | 83.6 | 81.5 | 79.8 | 78.7 | 77.8 | 77.3 | 78.6 | 78.9 |
| Exports | Mt | 135.3 | 137.9 | 138.4 | 139.3 | 140.6 | 143.0 | 145.6 | 148.1 | 150.2 | 152.4 | 154.5 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 228.8 | 222.1 | 213.3 | 206.1 | 200.6 | 199.4 | 201.3 | 203.5 | 206.2 | 207.5 | 208.8 |
| Price 3 | USD/t | 164.4 | 156.5 | 161.1 | 164.9 | 173.5 | 179.4 | 183.8 | 185.5 | 190.2 | 193.6 | 196.7 |
| Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 504.7 | 513.1 | 515.0 | 521.7 | 526.6 | 533.4 | 538.4 | 543.6 | 548.4 | 553.3 | 558.6 |
| Consumption | Mt | 447.5 | 465.6 | 472.4 | 478.4 | 482.3 | 486.7 | 488.8 | 493.1 | 496.8 | 500.8 | 505.1 |
| Net trade | Mt | 46.9 | 47.9 | 46.4 | 46.9 | 47.1 | 47.4 | 48.2 | 49.8 | 51.2 | 52.2 | 53.2 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 80.3 | 86.3 | 82.5 | 78.8 | 76.0 | 75.3 | 76.6 | 77.3 | 77.8 | 78.1 | 78.3 |
| Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 520.0 | 529.4 | 535.8 | 544.5 | 552.3 | 562.7 | 571.3 | 579.5 | 587.6 | 596.1 | 605.1 |
| Consumption | Mt | 567.6 | 575.7 | 586.0 | 593.8 | 600.9 | 609.3 | 617.8 | 626.6 | 635.4 | 646.2 | 656.0 |
| Net trade | Mt | -45.4 | -46.7 | -45.2 | -45.7 | -45.9 | -46.2 | -47.0 | -48.6 | -50.0 | -51.0 | -52.0 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 148.5 | 135.8 | 130.8 | 127.3 | 124.6 | 124.1 | 124.7 | 126.2 | 128.4 | 129.4 | 130.5 |
| OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 474.8 | 478.5 | 479.6 | 485.7 | 489.9 | 496.2 | 500.7 | 505.3 | 509.6 | 513.9 | 518.7 |
| Consumption | Mt | 466.3 | 485.8 | 492.6 | 498.5 | 502.3 | 506.8 | 509.0 | 513.2 | 516.9 | 521.0 | 525.3 |
| Net trade | Mt | -1.9 | -5.8 | -7.8 | -8.5 | -9.6 | -9.8 | -9.6 | -8.4 | -7.7 | -7.2 | -6.8 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 78.3 | 84.6 | 79.4 | 75.1 | 72.3 | 71.6 | 72.9 | 73.4 | 73.8 | 74.0 | 74.2 |
| OTHER COARSE GRAINS | ||||||||||||
| World | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 301.4 | 302.1 | 305.4 | 308.5 | 311.8 | 315.2 | 318.6 | 321.9 | 325.1 | 328.5 | 331.8 |
| Area | Mha | 156.2 | 153.9 | 154.0 | 154.2 | 154.3 | 154.4 | 154.6 | 154.8 | 154.9 | 155.1 | 155.3 |
| Yield | t/ha | 1.93 | 1.96 | 1.98 | 2.00 | 2.02 | 2.04 | 2.06 | 2.08 | 2.10 | 2.12 | 2.14 |
| Consumption | Mt | 292.5 | 298.1 | 300.3 | 304.1 | 307.2 | 310.4 | 313.2 | 316.5 | 319.7 | 323.1 | 326.5 |
| Feed use | Mt | 165.1 | 166.5 | 166.7 | 169.1 | 172.2 | 174.3 | 175.7 | 177.6 | 179.2 | 180.7 | 182.0 |
| Food use | Mt | 75.5 | 77.9 | 79.6 | 81.0 | 82.4 | 83.8 | 85.3 | 86.8 | 88.4 | 89.9 | 91.5 |
| Biofuel use | Mt | 7.8 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 9.9 |
| Other use | Mt | 44.2 | 43.9 | 43.9 | 43.9 | 42.4 | 42.1 | 42.2 | 42.1 | 42.1 | 42.6 | 43.0 |
| Exports | Mt | 49.2 | 43.4 | 43.9 | 44.9 | 45.9 | 46.7 | 47.7 | 48.7 | 49.5 | 50.3 | 51.2 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 58.1 | 61.4 | 61.5 | 60.8 | 60.4 | 60.1 | 60.5 | 60.9 | 61.3 | 61.5 | 61.8 |
| Price 4 | USD/t | 179.4 | 154.6 | 155.6 | 162.3 | 170.2 | 181.1 | 186.8 | 187.8 | 191.9 | 195.3 | 198.3 |
| Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 188.9 | 185.4 | 186.8 | 188.1 | 189.3 | 190.4 | 191.5 | 192.5 | 193.5 | 194.5 | 195.5 |
| Consumption | Mt | 150.1 | 156.1 | 156.1 | 156.9 | 157.2 | 157.5 | 157.5 | 157.7 | 157.9 | 158.4 | 158.6 |
| Net trade | Mt | 36.2 | 30.4 | 30.7 | 31.6 | 32.4 | 33.1 | 34.0 | 34.8 | 35.5 | 36.1 | 36.9 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 37.1 | 41.2 | 41.2 | 40.8 | 40.4 | 40.3 | 40.4 | 40.4 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.4 |
| Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 112.5 | 116.7 | 118.6 | 120.4 | 122.6 | 124.8 | 127.1 | 129.4 | 131.6 | 134.0 | 136.4 |
| Consumption | Mt | 142.4 | 142.0 | 144.2 | 147.2 | 150.0 | 152.8 | 155.7 | 158.7 | 161.7 | 164.8 | 167.8 |
| Net trade | Mt | -30.1 | -25.3 | -25.6 | -26.5 | -27.4 | -28.0 | -28.9 | -29.8 | -30.4 | -31.1 | -31.9 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 21.0 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 20.0 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 20.1 | 20.5 | 20.8 | 21.1 | 21.5 |
| OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 155.0 | 150.2 | 151.4 | 152.4 | 153.3 | 154.3 | 155.3 | 156.2 | 157.1 | 158.0 | 159.0 |
| Consumption | Mt | 129.3 | 133.2 | 132.7 | 133.3 | 133.4 | 133.6 | 133.5 | 133.9 | 134.3 | 134.9 | 135.4 |
| Net trade | Mt | 24.9 | 18.8 | 19.0 | 19.6 | 20.3 | 20.7 | 21.4 | 22.1 | 22.6 | 23.0 | 23.6 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 30.9 | 31.7 | 31.4 | 30.9 | 30.6 | 30.5 | 30.8 | 31.0 | 31.2 | 31.4 | 31.4 |
| RICE | ||||||||||||
| World | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 494.9 | 506.5 | 512.5 | 518.2 | 524.2 | 530.0 | 536.1 | 542.1 | 548.3 | 554.6 | 560.9 |
| Area | Mha | 162.3 | 163.8 | 163.8 | 163.9 | 164.0 | 164.0 | 164.0 | 164.1 | 164.1 | 164.2 | 164.2 |
| Yield | t/ha | 3.05 | 3.09 | 3.13 | 3.16 | 3.20 | 3.23 | 3.27 | 3.30 | 3.34 | 3.38 | 3.42 |
| Consumption | Mt | 494.7 | 507.6 | 513.5 | 518.1 | 524.3 | 530.1 | 535.8 | 541.8 | 547.8 | 553.9 | 560.1 |
| Feed use | Mt | 20.6 | 21.9 | 22.6 | 23.0 | 23.3 | 23.7 | 23.9 | 24.2 | 24.5 | 24.8 | 25.2 |
| Food use | Mt | 399.9 | 409.6 | 414.4 | 418.9 | 423.8 | 428.2 | 432.6 | 437.0 | 441.4 | 445.8 | 450.3 |
| Exports | Mt | 44.0 | 42.7 | 43.7 | 44.7 | 45.6 | 46.6 | 47.4 | 48.3 | 49.3 | 50.2 | 51.2 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 171.7 | 169.4 | 167.9 | 167.5 | 166.9 | 166.4 | 166.2 | 166.1 | 166.2 | 166.5 | 166.8 |
| Price 5 | USD/t | 375.1 | 389.0 | 393.5 | 398.4 | 400.3 | 405.0 | 407.6 | 409.5 | 411.1 | 412.9 | 415.5 |
| Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 18.1 | 17.3 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 18.3 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.6 | 18.6 |
| Consumption | Mt | 19.1 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 |
| Net trade | Mt | -1.1 | -1.4 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -0.9 | -0.9 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.9 |
| Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 476.8 | 489.2 | 494.3 | 499.9 | 505.9 | 511.6 | 517.6 | 523.7 | 529.8 | 536.0 | 542.3 |
| Consumption | Mt | 475.6 | 488.3 | 494.3 | 498.8 | 505.0 | 510.8 | 516.5 | 522.5 | 528.4 | 534.6 | 540.8 |
| Net trade | Mt | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 166.5 | 165.0 | 163.7 | 163.4 | 162.9 | 162.3 | 162.0 | 161.7 | 161.7 | 161.8 | 161.9 |
| OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 21.8 | 20.8 | 21.7 | 21.6 | 21.7 | 21.7 | 21.7 | 21.7 | 21.7 | 21.7 | 21.7 |
| Consumption | Mt | 22.9 | 23.3 | 23.2 | 23.1 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 22.9 | 22.9 | 22.8 | 22.8 | 22.7 |
| Net trade | Mt | -1.4 | -1.6 | -1.2 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -1.3 |
| Closing stocks | Mt | 6.6 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.8 |
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions. Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated. | |||||||||||||
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer | |||||||||||||
No.2 hard red winter wheat, ordinary protein, United States FOB Gulf Ports (June/May). | |||||||||||||
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries. | |||||||||||||
No.2 yellow corn, United States FOB Gulf Ports (September/August). | |||||||||||||
Feed barley, Europe, FOB Rouen. | |||||||||||||
Milled 100%, grade b, nominal price quote, FOB Bangkok (January/December). | |||||||||||||
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en |