This edition of the Outlook was prepared in a period of unprecedented financial market turmoil and rapidly deteriorating global economic prospects. Because macroeconomic conditions are changing so quickly, this report complements the standard baseline projections with an analysis of revised short–term GDP prospects and alternative GDP recovery paths. Lower GDP scenarios result in lower commodity prices, with reductions in crop and biofuel prices about one-half those for livestock products. A sensitivity analysis to highly uncertain crude oil prices shows the important links between energy and agricultural prices. The Outlook also reports on a survey of various actors in the agri-food chain in terms of the current impacts of the global economic crisis and credit market constraints.
The issue of food security and the capacity of the agricultural sector to meet the rising demand for food remains very high on the international political agenda. This report provides a brief overview of critical factors such as land availability, productivity gains, water usage and climate change, and suggests that agricultural production could be significantly increased, provided there is sufficient investment in research, infrastructure and technological change, particularly in developing countries.
- Date de publication :
- 28 jui 2009
- DOI :
- Pages :
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Voir l'abstract /
Preparation of the 2009 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook report, in this year of unprecedented global economic turmoil, has been particularly difficult and requires additional caution on the part of readers when interpreting the results as the macroeconomic situation is constantly unfolding.
The Outlook baseline incorporates a serious global economic slowdown but reflects a less profound recession than that foreseen by major economic institutions in late March 2009. The macroeconomic assumptions in the baseline have GDP contracting in many regions of the world and, in the OECD area as a whole, with a resumption of economic growth projected for 2010; higher growth then continues throughout the remainder of the projection period. A special assessment of certain aspects of the impact of the unfolding economic crisis on agriculture is provided in Chapter 2.