Experience Curves for Energy Technology Policy

Experience Curves for Energy Technology Policy You do not have access to this content

International Energy Agency

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07 July 2000
9789264182165 (PDF) ;9789264176508(print)

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The fact that market experience improves performance and reduces prices is well known and widely exploited in technology-intensive industries, but sparsely used in analysis for energy technology policy. Knowledge of the "experience effect" can help in the design of efficient programmes for deploying of environment-friendly technologies. The effect must be taken into account when estimating the future costs of achieving targets, including targets for carbon dioxide reduction. This book discusses issues raised by the "experience effect", such as price-cost cycles, competition for learning opportunities in the market, risk of "technology lockout" and the effects of research, development and deployment policies on technology learning. Case studies illustrate how experience curves can be used to set policy targets and to design policy measures that will encourage both investment in and use of environment-friendly energy technologies. Low-cost paths to stabilising CO2 emissions are explored.

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Table of Contents

Foreword by Robert Priddle
Chapter 1. Riding the Experience Curve
-Pricing for an Emerging Technology
-Assessing Future Prospects
-Competition and Learning Opportunities
-The Purpose of this Book
Chapter 2. Learning Requires Action
-An Input-Output Model of Learning
-Influencing the Learning System: Public R&D and Deployment Policies
-Inside the Learning System I. Technology Structural Change
-Outside the Learning System. Market Structural Change
-Inside the Learning System II. Compound Systems
Chapter 3. Making Emerging Technologies Commercial
-Solar Heating - Monitoring and Terminating an R&D Programme
-Wind Power - Deployment Support to Increase Learning
-Photovoltaics - Creating and Supporting New Niche Markets
Chapter 4. The Dynamics of Learning and Technology Competition
-Effect of Learning on Estimates of CO2 Mitigation Cost
-Competition for Learning Investments
-Uncertainty about Learning
-Managing the Balance between Global Learning and Local Deployment
Chapter 5. Conclusions - Implications for Energy Technology Policy
Appendix A. Graphic Representation of Learning Curves
Appendix B. Recommendations from the IEA Workshop on Experience Curves for Policy Making - The Case of Energy Technology, Stuttgart, Germany, 10-11 May 1999
Appendix C. International Collaboration no Experience Curves for Energy Technology Policy, EXCETP

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