Energy to 2050: Scenarios for a Sustainable Future

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International Energy Agency

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15 Oct 2004
9789264019058 (PDF) ;9789264019041(print)

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Analysing the interaction between energy and climate change mitigation issues requires the adoption of a long-term perspective – looking up to fifty years ahead.

This volume examines ‘exploratory scenarios’ and ‘normative scenarios’. These long-term scenarios complement the IEA’s World Energy Outlook, which presents a mid-term business-as-usual scenario with some variants.

The analysis in this volume seeks to stimulate new thinking in this critical domain.

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Table of Contents

-What are Scenarios and Why are They Useful?
-Different Types of Scenarios
-Objectives and Purpose of this Study
-Outline of Book Contents
1. Long-Term Energy and Environment Scenarios: The Literature
-General Methodological Aspects
-Review of Recent Scenario Work
--Global Scenarios
---Shell's Scenarios
---Stockholm Environmental Institute - Global Scenario Group
---World Business Council for Sustainable Development
---Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Scenarios
---Millennium Project
--Country Scenarios
---Canada: Energy Technology Futures
---The Netherlands: Long-Term Outlook for Energy Supply
---The United Kingdom Foresight Program - Energy Futures
-A Critique of Scenarios
2. Three Exploratory Scenarios to 2050
-The Scenarios
--Scenario 1. Clean, but not Sparkling. 2000-2025 Riding on Good Intentions
--Scenario 2. Dynamic but Careless. 2003-2015 Abundant Energy Resources
--Scenario 3. Bright Skies. 2003-2050 Lowering the Emissions Curve
-Comments and Implications of the Three Exploratory Scenarios
3. A Normative Scenario to 2050: The SD Vision Scenario
-Normative Characteristics
-Building a Reference Framework
-A Normative Case: The SD Vision Scenario
-Regional Implications of the SD Vision Scenario
-Policy Implications
4. Conclusions
-Building Useful Scenarios
-Drawing Out Insights: What Does the Literature Tell Us?
-Developing a New Scenario: The Explorative Approach
-Moveing to Policy Intervention: The SD Vision Scenario
-Where Do We Go From Here?
Appendix I. Scenarios from the Literature Reviewed
Appendix II. Scenario Comparisons

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