OECD Education Working Papers

Teacher Education and the Teaching Career in an Era of Lifelong Learning
1993-9019 (online)
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This series is designed to make available to a wider readership selected studies drawing on the work of the OECD Directorate for Education. Authorship is usually collective, but principal writers are named. The papers are generally available only in their original language (English or French) with a short summary available in the other.
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  N° 2   20 Dec 2002 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/teacher-education-and-the-teaching-career-in-an-era-of-lifelong-learning_226408628504
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Teacher Education and the Teaching Career in an Era of Lifelong Learning
John Coolahan
This paper attempts to position the teaching career within the context of the changing policy paradigm of lifelong learning. The paper locates the emergence of this policy within some of the fundamental social and economic changes which are re-shaping contemporary society. It emphasises that...
  N° 1   20 Dec 2002 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/teacher-demand-and-supply_232506301033
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Teacher Demand and Supply
Paulo Santiago
This paper provides an extensive review of the most relevant issues involved in the management of teacher demand and supply at the pre-tertiary level. First, it proposes a conceptual framework for distinguishing among, defining and relating the different relevant factors. Second, it identifies...
  N° 3   30 Sep 2003 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/the-role-of-national-qualifications-systems-in-promoting-lifelong-learning_224841854572
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The Role of National Qualifications Systems in Promoting Lifelong Learning
Friederike Behringer, Mike Coles
The aim of the OECD activity The Role of National Qualifications Systems in Promoting Lifelong Learning is to investigate how qualifications systems influence the volume, distribution and quality of lifelong learning. This paper takes forward thinking about the ways in which qualifications...
  N° 4   16 Dec 2005 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/measuring-educational-productivity-in-standards-based-accountability-systems_224417012465
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Measuring Educational Productivity in Standards-Based Accountability Systems
Martin Hampel
For many years the school system in the United States has measured success by the number of dollars spent, computers and textbooks purchased, and programs created. Moreover, the measures of success have not focused on academic achievement. Since 1965, American taxpayers have spent more than...
  N° 5   09 June 2006 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/pisa-2000_220456725273
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PISA 2000
Erich Neuwirth
As noted in the OECD's PISA 2000 Technical Report (OECD, 2002), the Austrian sample for the PISA 2000 assessment did not adequately cover students enrolled in combined school and work-based vocational programmes as required by the OECD's technical standards for PISA. The purpose of this working...
  N° 6   20 Mar 2007 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/funding-systems-and-their-effects-on-higher-education-systems_220244801417
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Funding Systems and their Effects on Higher Education Systems
Franz Strehl, Sabine Reisinger, Michael Kalatschan
This international study focuses on the funding systems in the area of higher education in the following countries: Austria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Latvia, Norway, Portugal and Slovak Republic. Each individual country study was designed and conducted within an overall...
  N° 7   26 Mar 2007 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/on-the-edge_220180871707
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On the Edge
As higher education has grown and state funding has been constrained, the financial sustainability of institutions of higher education has become an issue for policy makers and for those who govern and manage these institutions. The challenge for governments is to ensure that increasingly...
  N° 8   06 July 2007 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/globalisation-and-higher-education_173831738240
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Globalisation and Higher Education
Simon Marginson, Marijk van der Wende
Economic and cultural globalisation has ushered in a new era in higher education. Higher education was always more internationally open than most sectors because of its immersion in knowledge, which never showed much respect for juridical boundaries. In global knowledge economies, higher...
  N° 9   09 July 2007 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/understanding-the-regional-contribution-of-higher-education-institutions_161208155312
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Understanding the Regional Contribution of Higher Education Institutions
Peter Arbo, Paul Benneworth
The contribution of higher education institutions to regional development is a theme that has attracted growing attention in recent years. Knowledge institutions are increasingly expected not only to conduct education and research, but also to play an active role in the economic, social and...
  N° 10   14 Sep 2007 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/effects-of-tertiary-expansion_085513474523
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Effects of Tertiary Expansion
Bo Hansson
This paper examines crowding-out effects and the labour market match for the tertiary educated in 26 OECD countries, using attainment data and data on labour market outcomes from Education at a Glance 2006. A first-difference approach is applied on a three-period, pooled country-panel to...
  N° 12   23 Nov 2007 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/education-and-civic-engagement_050484723262
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Education and Civic Engagement
Jon Lauglo, Tormod Øia
What difference does education make for young adults' engagement in politics and social issues? This study is part of the OECD's Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI) project on "Measuring the Social Outcomes of Learning" (SOL). It discusses relevant international research,...
  N° 11   23 Nov 2007 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/skilled-voices_050662025403
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Skilled Voices?
Florian Walter, Sieglinde Rosenberger
This study, part of OECD/CERI's project on Measuring the Social Outcomes of Learning, investigates the relationship between educational attainment and political participation in Austria. First, a model based on various theoretical considerations is introduced. This incorporates direct...
  N° 14   21 Dec 2007 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/school-accountability-autonomy-choice-and-the-equity-of-student-achievement_246374511832
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School Accountability, Autonomy, Choice, and the Equity of Student Achievement
Gabriela Schütz, Martin R. West, Ludger Wöbmann
School systems aspire to provide equal opportunity for all, irrespective of socio-economic status (SES). Much of the criticism of recent school reforms that introduce accountability, autonomy, and choice emphasizes their potentially negative consequences for equity. This report provides new...
  N° 13   21 Dec 2007 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/school-accountability-autonomy-choice-and-the-level-of-student-achievement_246402531617
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School Accountability, Autonomy, Choice, and the Level of Student Achievement
Ludger Wöbmann, Elke Lüdemann, Gabriela Schütz, Martin R. West
Accountability, autonomy, and choice play a leading role in recent school reforms in many countries. This report provides new evidence on whether students perform better in school systems that have such institutional measures in place. We implement an internationally comparative approach within...
  N° 15   29 Feb 2008 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/assessment-of-learning-outcomes-in-higher-education_244257272573
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Assessment of Learning Outcomes in Higher Education
Deborah Nusche
Higher education institutions (HEIs) have experienced increasing pressures to provide accountability data and consumer information on the quality of teaching and learning. But existing ratings and rankings of HEIs tend to neglect information on student learning outcomes. Instead, they focus on...
  N° 19   15 July 2008 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/job-related-training-and-benefits-for-individuals_237755412637
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Job-Related Training and Benefits for Individuals
Bo Hansson
This paper reviews the literature on job-related training and the effects of these investments for different groups of individuals. The paper also elaborates on the theories, empirical explanations, and policy implications that can be drawn from these findings. Employer-provided training is by...
  N° 21   26 Sep 2008 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/final-report-of-the-development-of-an-international-adult-learning-module-oecd-al-module_236208471741
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Final Report of the Development of an International Adult Learning Module (OECD AL Module)
Helmut Kuwan, Ann-Charlotte Larsson
Policy interest in international surveys on Adult Learning (AL) has increased strongly. AL survey data are used as benchmarks for a country‘s educational system. However, results of key indicators like participation in learning activities often vary remarkably between different data sources....
  N° 20   18 Oct 2008 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/a-framework-for-monitoring-transition-systems_221381866820
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A Framework for Monitoring Transition Systems
Rolf K. W. van der Velden, Maarten H. J. Wolbers
With its publication of the Thematic Review on the Transition from Initial Education to Working Life in 2000, OECD has laid the foundation for the development of indicators regarding the transition from education to work. One of the core activities of OECD’s Network B in 2005 and 2006 was to...
  N° 18   19 Jan 2009 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/employers-perspectives-on-the-roles-of-human-capital-development-and-management-in-creating-value_227353534651
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Employers' Perspectives on the Roles of Human Capital Development and Management in Creating Value
Bo Hansson
Human capital – the productive capacity that is embedded in people – is one of the most important contributors to the growth in nations’ output and standard of living. Globalisation and technological change have increased the importance of human capital in recent years, to the point that there...
  N° 17   19 Jan 2009 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/recent-developments-in-intellectual-capital-reporting-and-their-policy-implications_227362757626
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Recent Developments in Intellectual Capital Reporting and their Policy Implications
W. Richard Frederick
This paper provides a survey of recent developments in the reporting of intangible assets. It finds that rather than the wholesale restructuring of the accounting model that was proposed years ago, the trend has been to address gaps in reporting with new forms of reporting. New forms of...
  N° 22   05 Feb 2009 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/what-works-in-migrant-education_227131784531
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What Works in Migrant Education?
Deborah Nusche
Education plays an essential role in preparing the children of immigrants for participation in the labour market and society. Giving these children opportunities to fully develop their potential is vital for future economic growth and social cohesion in OECD countries. But migrant students in...
  N° 24   16 July 2009 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/assessment-and-innovation-in-education_222814543073
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Assessment and Innovation in Education
Janet W. Looney
Do some forms of student (and school) assessment hinder the introduction of innovative educational practices and the development of innovation skills in education systems? This report focuses on the impact of high-stake summative assessment on innovation and argues that it is possible to...
  N° 25   04 Aug 2009 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/do-quasi-markets-foster-innovation-in-education_221583463325
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Do Quasi-markets Foster Innovation in Education?
Christopher Lubienski
This report seeks to address critical issues such as these by synthesising the evidence on innovations in more market-driven education systems. The analysis draws on data from over 20 OECD and non-OECD countries, including both developed nations that seek to move beyond established systems of...
  N° 26   02 Sep 2009 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/international-adult-literacy-and-basic-skills-surveys-in-the-oecd-region_221351213600
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International Adult Literacy and Basic Skills Surveys in the OECD Region
William Thorn
Both within and beyond the OECD region, governments and other stakeholders are increasingly interested in the assessments of the skills of their adult populations in order to monitor how well prepared they are for the challenges of the knowledge based society. The current paper provides an...
  N° 23   20 Oct 2009 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/teacher-evaluation-current-practices-in-oecd-countries-and-a-literature-review_223283631428
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Teacher Evaluation: Current Practices in OECD Countries and a Literature Review
Marlène Isoré
This paper discusses the most relevant issues concerning teacher evaluation in primary and secondary education by reviewing the recent literature and analysing current practices within the OECD countries. First, it provides a conceptual framework highlighting key features of teacher evaluation...
  N° 36   20 Nov 2009 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/piaac-problem-solving-in-technology-rich-environments-a-conceptual-framework_220262483674
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PIAAC Problem Solving in Technology-Rich Environments: A Conceptual Framework
PIAAC Expert Group in Problem Solving in Technology-Rich Environments
Governments and other stakeholders have become increasingly interested in assessing the skills of their adult populations for the purposes of monitoring how well prepared they are for the challenges of the new information world. The current paper provides an overview of the conceptual...
  N° 34   20 Nov 2009 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/piaac-literacy-a-conceptual-framework_220348414075
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PIAAC Literacy: A Conceptual Framework
PIAAC Literacy Expert Group
The current paper provides an overview of the conceptual framework for the assessment of numeracy developed for the OECD’s Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC).
  N° 33   20 Nov 2009 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/piaac-reading-component-a-conceptual-framework_220367414132
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PIAAC Reading Component: A Conceptual Framework
John P. Sabatini, Kelly M. Bruce
Governments and other stakeholders have become increasingly interested in assessing the skills of their adult populations in order to examine how well prepared they are to meet the challenges of the modern knowledge-based society. The current paper provides a conceptual framework for the...
  N° 38   20 Nov 2009 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/ict-in-initial-teacher-training-research-review_220502872611
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ICT in Initial Teacher Training: Research Review
Ann-Britt Enochsson, Caroline Rizza
This research review reports on articles presenting empirical research in the area of how teacher-training institutions work on preparing future teachers for the integration of information and communication technologies (ICT) in their future classrooms. It was conducted mainly in English and...
  N° 35   24 Nov 2009 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/piaac-numeracy-a-conceptual-framework_220337421165
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PIAAC Numeracy: A Conceptual Framework
PIAAC Numeracy Expert Group
Governments and other stakeholders have become increasingly interested in assessing the skills of their adult populations in order to monitor how well prepared they are to meet the challenges of the new information world. The current paper provides an overview of the conceptual framework for...
  N° 39   10 Dec 2009 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/education-and-obesity-in-four-oecd-countries_5km4psmtn8zx-en
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Education and Obesity in Four OECD Countries
Franco Sassi, Marion Devaux, Jody Church, Michele Cecchini, Francesca Borgonovi
An epidemic of obesity has been developing in virtually all OECD countries over the last 30 years. Existing evidence provides strong suggestions that such epidemic has affected certain social groups more than others. In particular, education appears to be associated with a lower likelihood of...
  N° 42   15 Dec 2009 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/school-evaluation_218816547156
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School Evaluation
Violaine Faubert
This paper examines the current academic and policy literatures concerning school evaluation in primary and secondary education within the OECD countries. First, it provides a typology of the existing systems of school evaluation across the OECD. It encompasses the diverse criteria and...
  N° 41   18 Dec 2009 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/21st-century-skills-and-competences-for-new-millennium-learners-in-oecd-countries_218525261154
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21st Century Skills and Competences for New Millennium Learners in OECD Countries
Katerina Ananiadou, Magdalean Claro
This paper discusses issues related to the teaching and assessment of 21st century skills and competencies in OECD countries drawing on the findings of a questionnaire study and other relevant background material such as white papers or curriculum documents. Although all OECD countries were...
  N° 43   05 Feb 2010 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/summary-of-the-june-2009-educationtoday-crisis-survey_5kmmsxbws77d-en
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Summary of the June 2009 educationtoday Crisis Survey
Kiira Kärkkäinen
This paper provides initial reflections on the impact of the economic crisis on education across the OECD area by analysing the OECD educationtoday crisis survey responses of June 2009. It first looks at the impact of the crisis on education demand and participation, after which the focus turns...
  N° 31   10 Feb 2010 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/does-reading-proficiency-at-age-15-affect-pathways-through-learning-and-work_5kmldvwm3rbq-en
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Does Reading Proficiency at Age 15 Affect Pathways through Learning and Work
Tomasz Gluszynski, Justin Bayard
Over the last decade, Canada has experienced a substantial increase in the number of individuals participating in post-secondary education (PSE). This trend emphasizes the importance of understanding the pathways leading to PSE enrolment and the competencies that are associated with them. This...
  N° 29   10 Feb 2010 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/impact-of-proficiency-on-early-entrants-to-the-labour-market_5kmldvwx7cr7-en
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Impact of Proficiency on Early Entrants to the Labour Market
Torben Drewes
The primary purpose of the report is to explore the impact of PISA reading scores on the early labour market outcomes of young Canadians of the Youth in Transition Survey. This inquiry is complicated by two facts. First, family and school characteristics that are positively correlated with PISA...
  N° 30   10 Feb 2010 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/how-does-academic-ability-affect-educational-and-labour-market-pathways-in-canada_5kmldw10hl6l-en
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How Does Academic Ability Affect Educational and Labour Market Pathways in Canada
Jorgen Hansen
Using data from the Youth in Transition Survey (YITS), this paper provides an up-to-date description of educational and labour market pathways (or transitions) among Canadian youth. It also estimates the effect of academic abilities, measured by PISA math and reading scores, on such...
  N° 28   10 Feb 2010 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/les-competences-bien-sur-mais-pas-seulement_5kmldw23rnls-fr
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Les compétences bien sûr, mais pas seulement
Ce rapport examine l’influence des compétences acquises à l’âge de 15 ans sur la participation aux études postsecondaires chez les jeunes Canadiens. Ces compétences sont mesurées par les résultats au test PISA obtenus auprès d’un échantillon d’élèves canadiens de 15 ans en 2000. Le rapport tente de répondre aux questions suivantes : • Quel est...
  N° 44   04 Mar 2010 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/1-1-in-education_5kmjzwfl9vr2-en
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1-1 in Education
Oscar Valiente
Over the last decade, more and more public and private stakeholders, in developed and developing countries, have been supporting 1:1 initiatives in education (i.e. every child receives her/his own personal computing device). These 1:1 initiatives represent a qualitative move forward from...
  N° 45   05 Mar 2010 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/how-technology-changes-demands-for-human-skills_5kmhds6czqzq-en
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How Technology Changes Demands for Human Skills
Frank Levy
This paper places the competencies to be measured by the OECD’s Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC) in the context of the technological developments which are reshaping the nature of the workplace and work in the 21st century. The largest technological...
  N° 46   31 Mar 2010 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/analysis-of-pisa-2006-preferred-items-ranking-using-the-percent-correct-method_5km4psmntkq5-en
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Analysis of PISA 2006 Preferred Items Ranking Using the Percent-Correct Method
Ray Adams, Alla Berezner, Maciej Jakubowski
This paper uses an approximate average percent-correct methodology to compare the ranks that would be obtained for PISA 2006 countries if the rankings had been derived from items judged by each country to be of highest priority for inclusion. The results reported show a remarkable consistency...
  N° 47   01 Apr 2010 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/international-approaches-to-teacher-selection-and-recruitment_5kmbphhh6qmx-en
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International Approaches to Teacher Selection and Recruitment
Andrew J. Hobson, Patricia Ashby, Joanna McIntyre, Angi Malderez
This report presents the findings of our review of the evidence base on comparative practices of teacher selection and recruitment, specifically on the different mechanisms countries use to assess teacher readiness to take up teaching posts, with particular emphasis on testing or examinations.1...
  N° 32   22 Apr 2010 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/comparing-the-similarities-and-differences-of-pisa-2003-and-timss_5km4psnm13nx-en
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Comparing the Similarities and Differences of PISA 2003 and TIMSS
Margaret Wu
This paper makes an in-depth comparison of the PISA (OECD) and TIMSS (IEA) mathematics assessments conducted in 2003. First, a comparison of survey methodologies is presented, followed by an examination of the mathematics frameworks in the two studies. The methodologies and the frameworks...
  N° 48   01 July 2010 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/initial-teacher-education-and-continuing-training-policies-in-a-comparative-perspective_5kmbphh7s47h-en
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Initial Teacher Education and Continuing Training Policies in a Comparative Perspective
Pauline Musset
To design policies that allow to educate and train teachers, capable of helping students to acquire the competencies needed to evolve in today‘s societies and labour markets is an amazing challenge. In today‘s context, with the undergoing economic and social changes, high-quality schooling is...
  N° 50   01 July 2010 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/education-alcohol-use-and-abuse-among-young-adults-in-britain_5kmbqvsh57g0-en
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Education, Alcohol Use and Abuse Among Young Adults in Britain
Maria del Carmen Huerta, Francesca Borgonovi
In this article we explore the relationship between education and alcohol consumption. We examine whether the probability of abusing alcohol differs across educational groups. We use data from the British Cohort Study, a longitudinal study of one week’s birth in Britain in 1970. Measures of...
  N° 52   21 Oct 2010 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/markets-in-education_5km4pskmkr27-en
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Markets in Education
Sietske Waslander, Cissy Pater, Maartje van der Weide
In the last three decennia, many governments have introduced market mechanisms in education. They have done so by enhancing parental choice and encouraging school competition, through policies like abolishing catchment areas, creating voucher programmes and setting up charter schools. These...
  N° 53   09 Nov 2010 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/taking-on-the-completion-challenge_5km4m2t59cmr-en
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Taking on the Completion Challenge
Cecilia S. Lyche
This paper reviews international research in the field of dropout from upper secondary education and training in OECD countries in order to present possible solutions to policymakers faced with the completion challenge. The paper begins by presenting existing definitions of dropout and upper...
  N° 54   22 Nov 2010 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/using-student-test-results-for-accountability-and-improvement_5km4htwzbv30-en
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Using Student Test Results for Accountability and Improvement
Morten Anstorp Rosenkvist
This report discusses the most relevant issues concerning using student test results in OECD countries. Initially the report provides an overview of how student test results are reported in OECD countries and how stakeholders in these countries use and perceive of the results. The report then...
  N° 55   07 Jan 2011 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/workforce-skills-and-innovation_5kgk6hpnhxzq-en
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Workforce Skills and Innovation
Phillip Toner
This paper provides an account of the main approaches, debates and evidence in the literature on the role of workforce skills in the innovation process in developed economies. It draws on multiple sources including the innovation studies discipline, neoclassical Human Capital theory,...
  N° 56   01 Feb 2011 Click to Access: 
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  • http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/education/oecd-educationtoday-crisis-survey-2010_5kgj1r9zk09x-en
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OECD Educationtoday Crisis Survey 2010
Dirk Van Damme, Kiira Kärkkäinen
The second OECD educationtoday Crisis Survey was carried out in 2010. Twenty-five OECD member countries completed the questionnaire. The results of the survey relies largely on the informed opinion of education officials regarding various aspects of the impact of the economic recession and...
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