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Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.
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The Effect of Episodes of Large Capital Inflows on Domestic Credit
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- Davide Furceri1, Stéphanie Guichard1, Elena Rusticelli1
- Author Affiliations
- 1: OECD, France
- 17 May 2011
- Bibliographic information
This paper analyses the effect of capital inflow shocks on the evolution of domestic credit. Using a panel of developed and emerging economies from 1970 to 2007, it is shown that in the two years following the beginning of a capital inflow shock the credit-to-GDP ratio increases by about 2 percentage points. The effect is reversed in the medium-term with the credit-to-GDP ratio decreased by almost 4 percentage points seven years after the initial shock. The paper also finds that the effect is different depending on the type of flows characterising the episode (debt vs. portfolio equity vs. FDI), with large capital inflows that are debt-driven having the largest effect. The results of the paper also suggest that the short-term effect of capital inflow shocks on domestic credit depends on countries’ macroeconomic policy stances. In particular, it is found that this effect is lower in countries with higher real exchange rate flexibility and fiscal policy counter-cyclicality.
- capital inflows, credit booms, domestic credit
- JEL Classification:
- F30: International Economics / International Finance / General
- F32: International Economics / International Finance / Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements