Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis
- Frequency :
- 3 times a year
- ISSN :
- 1729-3626 (online)
- ISSN :
- 1729-3618 (print)
- DOI :
- 10.1787/17293626
The Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis is jointly published by the OECD and the Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET) to promote the exchange of knowledge and information on theoretical and operational aspects of economic cycle research, involving both measurement and analysis (see www.ciret.org/bcma). Now published as a part of the OECD Journal.
The Economic Sentiment Indicator
Leading Indicator - Properties in Old and New EU Member States
- Publication Date
- 10 Mar 2008
- Pages
- 11
- Bibliographic information
-
- No.:
- 11,
- Volume:
- 2007,
- Issue:
- 2
- Pages
- 199–215
- DOI
- 10.1787/jbcma-v2007-art11-en
This paper assesses the leading indicator properties of the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) of the European Commission, as well as two of its subcomponents, for industrial production growth. For this purpose we perform correlation analysis, Granger causality tests, an assessment on the ability to predict turning points and an out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Within a panel setting we compare the characteristics of these indicators for two subgroups of EU countries: the EU-15 and the new EU member states. We show that the forecasting quality and the leading indicator properties are still slightly lagging behind in the group of new EU member states. This may be related to the general problem of data quality and the undergone history of structural change in these countries that makes the assessment of future economic prospects particularly difficult.