1887

OECD Economics Department Working Papers

Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.

The views expressed in these papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries.

English, French

The Determinants of Real Long-Term Interest Rates

17 Country Pooled-Time-Series Evidence

In this paper a model is presented and estimated that explains real long-term interest rates in terms of developments in low-frequency and high-frequency economic factors in a multi-country framework, using a data set covering 17 OECD countries since the early-1980s. A simultaneous estimation procedure is adopted (using instrumental variables), with an error correction framework for each country separating the low-frequency fundamental influences on real rates from the higher-frequency short-term dynamics. Parameters of the low-frequency variables are constrained to be equal across countries, which imposes the requirement that they have consistent effects both on behaviour through time and in explaining cross-country interest differentials. The results indicate that the low-frequency component of real rates is determined by fundamentals such as the rate of return on business capital, portfolio risk, inflation uncertainty, and indicators of future saving and investment ...

English

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