Strategic Transport Infrastructure Needs to 2030

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27 Feb 2012
9789264168626 (PDF) ;9789264095212(print)

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Transcontinental Infrastructure Needs to 2030/50 explores the long-term opportunities and challenges facing major gateway and transport hub infrastructures --  ports, airports and major rail corridors – in the coming decades.  The report uses projections and scenarios to assess the broader economic outlook and future infrastructure requirements, and examines the options for financing these, not least against the backdrop of the economic recession and financial crisis which have significantly modified the risks and potential rewards associated with major infrastructure projects.  Building on numerous in-depth case studies from Europe, North America and Asia, the report offers insights into the economic prospects for these key facilities and identifies policy options for improved gateway and corridor infrastructure in the future.
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  • Foreword
    Major international gateway and corridor infrastructures such as ports, airports and key rail routes are crucially important to the exports and imports of all the products and resources of modern-day economies. These infrastructures will become even more important in the future.
  • Executive summary
    The OECD’s "Strategic Transport Infrastructure Needs to 2030" project brought together experts from the public and private sector to take stock of the long-term opportunities and challenges facing gateway and corridor infrastructure (ports, airports, rail corridors, oil and gas pipelines, etc.). The intention was to propose a set of policy options to enhance the contribution of these infrastructures to economic and social development at home and abroad in the years to come.
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  • Expand / Collapse Hide / Show all Abstracts The traffic growth challenge

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    • The global and regional outlook for the economy, trade and transport
      Reference projections suggest "global GDP will continue to grow strongly and could double over the period to 2030" – and GDP, GDP per capita and international trade are major drivers of increased passenger and trade flows and related international transport needs. In the future, the largest increases in these flows are expected intra-Asia and along the major trade routes between Asia and the largest developed regions, i.e. Asia- North America and Asia-Europe. In terms of trade, world port container volumes could be three to four times higher by 2030 and five to six times current levels by 2050. Rail passenger and freight demand could increase at around 2-3% per annum, close to world GDP. Robust but differentiated global economic growth across developed and developing countries – and the resulting trade and transport growth – will place increasing pressure on infrastructure, which will need to handle the large increases in traffic.
    • Global infrastructure needs to 2030
      Based on the new and revised estimates of infrastructure needs presented herein, significant investments in all four economic infrastructure sectors – ports, airports, rail corridors, and oil and gas pipelines – will be required on a global basis to meet the projected increases in demand over the next 20 years. However, given that governments in OECD member countries are facing large deficits and fiscal consolidation tasks over the next five years or longer, there is clearly a risk of inadequate investment in infrastructure in the medium- to longer term future. This would have significant impacts, given the key role infrastructure can play in facilitating and promoting competitiveness and growth.
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  • Expand / Collapse Hide / Show all Abstracts Opportunities and challenges for strategic transport infrastructure

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    • Strategic transport infrastructure case studies
      The case studies reinforce the importance of major international gateway and corridor infrastructures to international trade and the economies of each country. International passenger and freight movements are highly concentrated along major trade corridors, distinguished by high-volume, efficient services. Major international ports, airports and key inland transport connections in each country handle the bulk of the traffic. Increases in demand can be expected along inland connections from gateways to the cities and industrial areas in their hinterlands, making each country’s international gateways and inland trade corridor infrastructures even more important to its national economy. World-class gateway, hub and inland infrastructure will be required in the future to attract the transport services required and to fully support the growth and development of these economies.
    • Strategic transport infrastructure in other key economies
      A number of other economies that are large exporters or importers (or both) – and therefore important to international trade and transport – were not able to participate in the OECD’s Strategic Transport Infrastructure to 2030 project. However, the approaches they take to transport infrastructure generally and strategic infrastructure in particular are of considerable interest, and can influence developments elsewhere. This chapter outlines recent developments in five such economies.
    • Key issues emerging from the case studies
      The major gateways and hubs considered here are preparing for large increases in volumes in the future. Some have large infrastructure expansion plans and developments under way. Most are working on international connections and on the improvements needed to inland connections. All are acutely aware of the importance of good planning and secure funding and financing to take advantage of the opportunities. Good structures and organisational models are highlighted, as well as some of the best funding and financing models currently used to provide funding security. Other wide-ranging issues are raised that need to be addressed satisfactorily if the projects are to be successful.
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  • Expand / Collapse Hide / Show all Abstracts Meeting the challenge: Possibilities for gateway management, funding, finance and planning

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    • Gateway structures and organisation
      Better structures and organisation can help deliver the funding and financing needed for strategic gateway infrastructure, and are in fact important to delivering many other outcomes that will be required in the future. Of the current structures and organisational modes described here, the "landlord" model offers clear advantages, and is increasingly used.
    • Infrastructure funding: Gateways and inland links
      There are a number of different options for general or gateway-specific funding arrangements. Models that rely on annual budget funding cycles to supplement user revenues rarely produce satisfactory outcomes; what counts is secure funding from multiple and diverse sources. Airports should be focusing on the capacity increases that will be required, especially given long lead times, and inland transport cannot be regarded as a second-order issue.
    • Infrastructure financing
      Private-sector financing can help deliver the equity and debt financing needed to make the infrastructure project operational. Private sector involvement can also help manage the transition to "user pays" and increased self-financing of future investments. Pension funds and private infrastructure funds are potential investors in the gateways and their infrastructure investments. However, they need access to good-quality projects with riskreward balances consistent with their responsibilities to pension and infrastructure fund contributors. Debt-financing models – and guidelines – are discussed.
    • Strategic planning and contributions to green growth
      National visions and long-term plans for strategic infrastructure development (with consistent policies, co-ordinated developments and aligned networks) are essential inputs to planning and evaluation assessments of the gateway infrastructure required. Strategic planning at the national level especially can best assess the broad outlook, highlight major changes in demand, identify strategic options for how best to respond, and assess possible impacts of policy changes to address issues and improve outcomes. For infrastructure yet to be built, important contributions to green growth – clearly an emerging priority in many locations – can be made during infrastructure planning and development stages. Once developed, there is considerable scope for management of infrastructure use, including in relation to cleaner vehicle and vessels technologies, to raise those contributions.
    • Improving evaluation processes
      Evaluations of strategic infrastructures need to capture the possible infrastructure contributions to the full range of longer term objectives – including growth, productivity, competitiveness, trade, energy efficiency and CO2 reduction. At the moment there is much room for improvement, which could take the form of longer evaluations, lower discount rates, and recognition of infrastructure’s contributions to green growth.
    • Developing national policy frameworks
      National frameworks in certain countries are relatively well defined and supportive of infrastructure planning, funding and development. Those frameworks are no doubt one of the reasons for the high infrastructure quality evident in most of these countries. But the same does not hold everywhere. One way to provide stakeholders with greater certainty, stability and security with regard to the funding needed would be to establish a National Infrastructure Fund.
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