- 3 times a year
- 1729-3626 (online)
- 1729-3618 (print)
The Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis is jointly published by the OECD and the Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET) to promote the exchange of knowledge and information on theoretical and operational aspects of economic cycle research, involving both measurement and analysis (see www.ciret.org/bcma). Now published as a part of the OECD Journal.
An Evaluation of Japanese Leading Indicators
- Hiroshi Yamada, Yuzo Honda, Yasuyoshi Tokutsu
- 10 Mar 2008
- Bibliographic information
This paper evaluates the performances of Japanese leading indicators in predicting business cycle turning points. We extract the business cycle component in leading indicators using the frequency selective filter proposed by Baxter and King (1999), and we try to clarify empirically whether or not the leading composite index and its component series truly lead the business cycle turning point dates officially determined by the Japanese government. We argue that if we utilize the evaluated properties of the component series, we may construct a composite leading indicator which has some desirable properties as requested. As an illustration we provide one such example.