OECD Economics Department Working Papers

Short-term Indicator Models for Quarterly GDP Growth in the BRIICS
ISSN :
1815-1973 (online)
DOI :
10.1787/18151973
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Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.

The views expressed in these papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries.

 
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Page: 1 (N° 1109) … , 2 (N° 1059) , 3 (N° 1009) , 4 (N° 959) … 23 (N° 7) | Next
Mark Number Date TitleClick to Access
  N° 1009   15 Jan 2013 Click to Access:  Enhancing the Inclusiveness of the Labour Market in Belgium
Jens Høj
The global crisis led to a smaller increase in the unemployment rate than in most other OECD countries as employment has been sustained through intensive use of reduced working time schemes. These schemes have mostly benefited workers with permanent contracts while the higher unemployment...
  N° 1008   10 Dec 2012 Click to Access:  Reducing Poverty in Estonia Through Activation and Better Targeting
Sarah Flèche, Artur Radziwill
The crisis revealed the need for a strategic review of the existing social protection system in Estonia. Extreme income fluctuations on one side and low social benefits on the other side exposed fragile groups in the population to a significant poverty risk. The government has recently...
  N° 1007   10 Dec 2012 Click to Access:  Matching Skills and Jobs in Estonia
Lilas Demmou
The labour market in Estonia is volatile, increasing the risk that groups with some obstacles to enter the labour market (youth, non-Estonian speakers and workers with no upper secondary graduation certificate) may become long-term unemployed, due to the aggravating skills mismatch in the wake...
  N° 1006   07 Dec 2012 Click to Access:  Debt and Macroeconomic Stability: An Overview of the Literature and Some Empirics
Douglas Sutherland, Peter Hoeller
How does debt affect macroeconomic stability? The answer to this question has important implications, because both public and private debt levels have reached historic highs across the OECD. While accumulating debt can help smooth real activity, at high levels debt creates weaknesses in...
  N° 1005   04 Dec 2012 Click to Access:  Debt and Macroeconomic Stability: Debt and the Business Cycle
Volker Ziemann
Using a large panel of OECD countries this paper studies the link between debt and macroeconomic stability by comparing the evolution of balance sheet aggregates and economic output in high- and lowdebt environments. While the relationship between debt and economic growth has been extensively...
  N° 1004   07 Dec 2012 Click to Access:  Debt and Macroeconomic Stability: Case studies
Rossana Merola
Accumulating debt raises concerns about its implications for macroeconomic stability. This paper sheds light on the implications of high indebtedness for the macroeconomic volatility by identifying the main drivers of the evolution of debt in a set of countries. The country choice was based on...
  N° 1003   06 Dec 2012 Click to Access:  Debt and Macroeconomic Stability
Douglas Sutherland, Peter Hoeller, Rossana Merola, Volker Ziemann
Debt levels have surged since the mid-1990s and have reached historic highs across the OECD. High debt levels can create vulnerabilities, which amplify and transmit macroeconomic and asset price shocks. Furthermore, high debt levels hinder the ability of households and enterprises to smooth...
  N° 1002   04 Dec 2012 Click to Access:  Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Cost Effective Way in Switzerland
Anita Wölfl, Patrizio Sicari
Switzerland has low greenhouse gas emissions per capita as compared to other countries, which reflects the strong reliance on energy sources emitting few greenhouse gas emissions, especially in electricity generation, and little heavy industry. Greenhouse gas emissions have remained almost the...
  N° 1001   22 Nov 2012 Click to Access:  Strengthening Innovation in the United States
David Carey, Christopher Hill, Brian Kahin
The US innovation system has many strengths, including world class research universities and firms that thrive in innovation-intensive sectors. However, fissures have begun to appear, notably in the areas of human capital development, the patent system and manufacturing activity, while public...
  N° 1000   28 Jan 2013 Click to Access:  Long-Term Growth Scenarios
Åsa Johansson, Yvan Guillemette, Fabrice Murtin, David Turner, Giuseppe Nicoletti, Christine de la Maisonneuve, Philip Bagnoli, Guillaume Bousquet, Francesca Spinelli
This paper presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is...
  N° 999   20 Nov 2012 Click to Access:  Selected Aspects of Household Savings in Germany
Christina Kolerus, Isabell Koske, Felix Hüfner
This paper uses household level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) over the period 1991 to 2008 to analyse the driving factors of movements in the German household savings rate. Specifically, it analyses the impact of the precautionary savings motive and the impact of the 2002...
  N° 998   30 Oct 2012 Click to Access:  Improving the Tax System in Indonesia
Jens Arnold
Indonesia has come a long way in improving its tax system over the last decade, both in terms of revenues raised and administrative efficiency. Nonetheless, the tax take is still low, given the need for more spending on infrastructure and social protection. With the exception of the natural...
  N° 997   29 Oct 2012 Click to Access:  Unleashing Business Innovation in Canada
Alexandra Bibbee
This paper discusses how to improve Canada’s business innovation in order to boost labour productivity and output growth. Many general framework conditions are highly favourable to business risk-taking and innovation, including macro stability, openness, strong human capital, low corporate tax...
  N° 996   24 Oct 2012 Click to Access:  Public Policy and Resource Allocation
Dan Andrews, Federico Cingano
The correlation between a firm’s size and its productivity level varies considerably across OECD countries, suggesting that some countries are more successful at channelling resources to high productivity firms than others. Accordingly, we examine the extent to which regulations affecting...
  N° 995   17 Oct 2012 Click to Access:  Promoting SME development in Indonesia
Annabelle Mourougane
Micro, small and medium-sized firms (MSMEs) are a key source of employment and economic growth in Indonesia. They contributed to the country’s economic resilience during the 2008-09 financial crisis. But many suffer from low productivity, curbing their role in boosting living standards. There...
  N° 994   17 Oct 2012 Click to Access:  Portugal: Rebalancing the Economy and Returning to Growth Through Job Creation and Better Capital Allocation
Álvaro Pina, Ildeberta Abreu
Low growth and huge current account deficits have characterised the Portuguese economy over the past decade. Easy credit in global markets, combined with the absence of incentives to limit loan-to-deposit ratios until recently, made it possible to finance internationally high levels of...
  N° 993   17 Oct 2012 Click to Access:  Public Debt, Economic Growth and Nonlinear Effects
Balázs Égert
The economics profession seems to increasingly endorse the existence of a strongly negative nonlinear effect of public debt on economic growth. Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) were the first to point out that a public debt-to-GDP ratio higher than 90% of GDP is associated with considerably lower...
  N° 992   24 Sep 2012 Click to Access:  Choosing the Pace of Fiscal Consolidation
Łukasz Rawdanowicz
In many OECD countries debt has soared to levels threatening fiscal sustainability, necessitating its reduction over the medium to longer term. This paper uses stylised simulations in a small, calibrated macroeconomic model which features endogenous interactions between fiscal policy, growth...
  N° 991   20 Sep 2012 Click to Access:  Tertiary Education: Developing Skills for Innovation and Long-Term Growth in Canada
Calista Cheung, Yvan Guillemette, Shahrzad Mobasher-Fard
The tertiary education system in Canada performs well in fostering a skilled workforce with generally good labour-market outcomes and is internationally recognised for its research contributions. Tertiary educational attainment is high, but participation rates will need to continue expanding to...
  N° 990   20 Sep 2012 Click to Access:  Trade and Product Market Policies in Upstream Sectors and Productivity in Downstream Sectors
Maria Bas, Orsetta Causa
This paper explores the productivity impact of trade, product market and financial market policies over the last decade in China – a fast growing country where, despite significant reform action, regulatory stance remains still far from OECD standards. The paper makes a critical distinction...
  N° 989   18 Sep 2012 Click to Access:  Intangible Assets, Resource Allocation and Growth
Dan Andrews, Alain de Serres
This paper explores the growing importance of intangible assets as a potential source of innovation and productivity gains, and the contribution of efficient resource allocation to this process. Realising the growth opportunities implied by intangible assets depends on the ability to reallocate...
  N° 988   14 Sep 2012 Click to Access:  Current Account Benchmarks for Turkey
Oliver Röhn
Turkey’s current account deficit widened to almost 10% of GDP in 2011 and has been narrowing only gradually since. An important question is to what extent Turkey’s current account deficit is excessive. To explore this issue, one needs to establish benchmarks. In this paper current account...
  N° 987   13 Sep 2012 Click to Access:  Structural Reforms to Boost Turkey's Long-Term Growth
Rauf Gönenç, Oliver Röhn, Vincent Koen, Şeref Saygili
Turkey can achieve strong sustainable growth and job creation but further reforms in the labour market, education and product markets are required for such gains to materialise. In recent years, growth has been largely driven by the industrial catch-up of Anatolian regions, although the Marmara...
  N° 986   13 Sep 2012 Click to Access:  Tackling Turkey's External and Domestic Macroeconomic Imbalances
Oliver Röhn, Rauf Gönenç, Vincent Koen, Ramazan Karaşahin
Effective macroeconomic and structural policies helped Turkey bounce back quickly and strongly from the global crisis, with annual growth averaging close to 9% over 2010-11. However, the current account deficit widened to around 10% of GDP in 2011 and consumer price inflation rose to over 10%....
  N° 985   13 Sep 2012 Click to Access:  Portugal - Solid Foundations for a Sustainable Fiscal Consolidation
David Haugh, Stéphane Sorbe
Owing to slow growth and a relatively weak fiscal position, Portugal’s public debt had been rising for almost a decade when the global crisis struck, sharply increasing the deficit. The loss of confidence in Portuguese and other euro area sovereign bonds required international financial...
  N° 984   19 Sep 2012 Click to Access:  Portugal - Assessing the Risks Around the Speed of Fiscal Consolidation in an Uncertain Environment
Stéphane Sorbe
This paper illustrates possible trade-offs between two different fiscal consolidation strategies in Portugal: sticking to the nominal fiscal targets in the EU-IMF programme or allowing automatic stabilisers to work, while sticking to the structural primary deficit targets implied by the...
  N° 983   13 Sep 2012 Click to Access:  The German Labour Market
Felix Hüfner, Caroline Klein
The strength of the German labour market response to the financial crisis of 2008-09 demonstrated the benefits of past labour market reforms, which raised work incentives, improved job matching and increased working hour flexibility. Going forward, the government should build on this success...
  N° 982   12 Sep 2012 Click to Access:  Climate Change Policies in Germany
Caroline Klein
Germany reduced greenhouse gas emissions substantially but remains an important emitter. Ambitious targets for climate change mitigation have been fixed and a broad range of environmental measures are being implemented. The efficiency of these measures, as well as their coordination, should be...
  N° 981   03 Sep 2012 Click to Access:  Restarting the Growth Engine in Finland
Henrik Braconier
Impressive productivity performance during the last decades has weakened since 2007, reflecting the 2008-09 recession but also a poor performance in important sectors, like the information and communication technology sector. Reforms to raise long term productivity growth need to be pursued....
  N° 980   03 Sep 2012 Click to Access:  Import Competition, Domestic Regulation and Firm-Level Productivity Growth in the OECD
Sarra Ben Yahmed, Sean Dougherty
This paper examines how import penetration affects firms' productivity growth taking into account the heterogeneity in firms' distance to the efficiency frontier and country differences in product market regulation. Using firm-level data for a large number of OECD countries, the analysis...
  N° 979   27 July 2012 Click to Access:  Non-Parametric Stochastic Simulations to Investigate Uncertainty around the OECD Indicator Model Forecasts
Elena Rusticelli
The forecasting uncertainty around point macroeconomic forecasts is usually measured by the historical performance of the forecasting model, using measures such as root mean squared forecasting errors (RMSE). This measure, however, has the major drawback that it is constant over time and hence...
  N° 978   06 July 2012 Click to Access:  Measuring GDP Forecast Uncertainty Using Quantile Regressions
Thomas Laurent, Tomasz Kozluk
Uncertainty is inherent to forecasting and assessing the uncertainty surrounding a point forecast is as important as the forecast itself. Following Cornec (2010), a method to assess the uncertainty around the indicator models used at OECD to forecast GDP growth of the six largest member...
  N° 977   06 July 2012 Click to Access:  Implications of Output Gap Uncertainty in Times of Crisis
Romain Bouis, Boris Cournède, Ane Kathrine Christensen
This paper analyses the monetary and fiscal policy implications of output gap estimates in times of crisis. The widening of output gaps observed in major OECD economies in the wake of the recent crisis has been mainly due to total factor productivity gaps, except in the United States where it...
  N° 976   29 June 2012 Click to Access:  Avoiding Debt Traps
Pier Carlo Padoan, Urban Sila, Paul van den Noord
In this paper we develop a simple analytical framework to analyze "good" and "bad equilibria" in public-debt and growth dynamics. The "bad equilibrium" is characterised by the simultaneous occurrence, and adverse feedbacks between, high and growing fiscal deficits and debt, high risk premia on...
  N° 975   02 July 2012 Click to Access:  Sluggish Productivity Growth in Denmark
Muge Adalet McGowan, Stéphanie Jamet
Despite sound policies and institutions, Danish productivity has grown modestly over the past decade, both historically and in relation to other countries, contributing to weak economic growth and an erosion in competitiveness. An examination of the four potential drivers of this puzzle, namely...
  N° 974   28 June 2012 Click to Access:  Towards Green Growth in Denmark
Stéphanie Jamet
Denmark’s green growth strategy focuses on moving the energy system away from fossil fuels and investing in green technologies, while limiting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. On the whole, current policies should allow Denmark to reach near-term climate change targets, but may not be sufficient...
  N° 973   30 July 2012 Click to Access:  An Analysis of Productivity Performance in Spain Before and During the Crisis
Juan S. Mora Sanguinetti, Andrés Fuentes
The Spanish economy experienced significantly weaker labour productivity growth than other OECD economies and failed to catch up with the most advanced economies in the period 1996-2007. In recent years labour productivity growth has accelerated, but this recovery is likely to be due to...
  N° 972   21 June 2012 Click to Access:  Europe's New Fiscal Rules
Sebastian Barnes, David Davidsson, Łukasz Rawdanowicz
Europe is putting in place a new system of fiscal rules following the euro area sovereign debt crisis and decades of rising government to debt-to-GDP ratios. These include the so-called "six pack" to upgrade the Stability and Growth Pact to a new Treaty incorporating the "fiscal compact". Much...
  N° 971   07 June 2012 Click to Access:  Credit Crises and the Shortcomings of Traditional Policy Responses
William R. White
Economic downturns which have their roots in preceding credit excesses and debt overhang have tended historically to be long lasting, whether the financial sector remained healthy or not. There are no good reasons to believe the current global crisis will be any different. Moreover, it is...
  N° 970   20 June 2012 Click to Access:  International Capital Mobility and Financial Fragility - Part 7. Enhancing Financial Stability
Rudiger Ahrend, Carla Valdivia
This paper brings together the results from new empirical analysis on how – under international capital mobility – financial account structure and structural policies can contribute to financial stability. More specifically, the analysis has identified features of financial accounts and...
  N° 969   20 June 2012 Click to Access:  International Capital Mobility and Financial Fragility - Part 6. Are all Forms of Financial Integration Equally Risky in Times of Financial Turmoil?
Rudiger Ahrend, Antoine Goujard
Using the 2008-09 global financial crisis, this paper examines the role of different forms of international financial integration for asset price contagion in crisis times. Defining contagion as the transmission of financial market movements beyond the co-movements that would occur in...
  N° 968   12 June 2012 Click to Access:  International Capital Mobility and Financial Fragility - Part 5. Do Investors Disproportionately Shed Assets of Distant Countries Under Increased Uncertainty?
OECD
The global crisis of 2008-09 went in hand with sharp fluctuations in capital flows. To some extent, these fluctuations may have been attributable to uncertainty-averse investors indiscriminately selling assets about which they had poor information, including those in geographically distant...
  N° 967   12 June 2012 Click to Access:  International Capital Mobility and Financial Fragility - Part 4. Which Structural Policies Stabilise Capital Flows When Investors Suddenly Change Their Mind?
Rudiger Ahrend, Cyrille Schwellnus
The global financial crisis of 2007-09 and the ensuing sovereign debt crisis in Europe provide evidence that portfolio rebalancing of financial investors can contribute to spread financial turmoil across countries. Rebalancing of portfolios, in turn, may be driven by the need to meet liquidity...
  N° 966   12 June 2012 Click to Access:  International Capital Mobility and Financial Fragility - Part 3. How Do Structural Policies Affect Financial Crisis Risk?
Rudiger Ahrend, Antoine Goujard
This paper examines how structural policies can influence a country's risk of suffering financial turmoil. Using a panel of 184 developed and emerging economies from 1970 to 2009, the empirical analysis examines which structural policies can affect financial stability by either shaping the...
  N° 965   05 June 2012 Click to Access:  Sustaining Korea's Convergence to the Highest-Income Countries
Randall S. Jones, Satoshi Urasawa
While Korea remains one of the fastest-growing OECD economies, its potential growth rate per capita is projected to decelerate from around 4% during the current decade to around 2¼ per cent during the 2030s. Sustaining growth requires policies to mitigate the impact of rapid population ageing...
  N° 964   05 June 2012 Click to Access:  Achieving the "Low Carbon, Green Growth" Vision in Korea
Randall S. Jones, Byungseo Yoo
Korea, which has had the highest growth rate of greenhouse gas emissions in the OECD area since 1990, adopted an ambitious Green Growth Strategy in 2009. It aims at reducing emissions by 30% by 2020 relative to a "business as usual" scenario, implying a 4% cut from the 2005 level. The Strategy...
  N° 963   05 June 2012 Click to Access:  Promoting Social Cohesion in Korea
Randall S. Jones, Satoshi Urasawa
Korea faces the challenge of reversing rising inequality while sustaining robust economic growth. Welltargeted increases in Korea’s low level of social spending are needed to fill holes in the safety net, especially for the elderly. The development of social security depends on closing gaps in...
  N° 962   23 May 2012 Click to Access:  Housing Price and Investment Dynamics in Finland
Christophe André, Clara García
The Finnish housing market is volatile. After declining significantly as the global financial crisis unfolded, housing prices and investment recovered to reach new peaks. This paper uses a small econometric model to assess the role of fundamentals in housing price and investment developments....
  N° 961   23 May 2012 Click to Access:  Improving Health Outcomes and System in Hungary
Mehmet Eris
Based on the latest available data up to 2009, the health status of the Hungarian population is among the poorest in the OECD, including countries with a similar level of income per capita. While this outcome has been driven by the socioeconomic status of the population and lifestyle risks, it...
  N° 960   23 May 2012 Click to Access:  Towards a More Inclusive Labour Market in Hungary
Rafal Kierzenkowski
A rapid decrease in unemployment is a short-term priority to limit social problems and reduce the risk of rising structural unemployment. To this end, strengthening labour market policies to sustain labour demand is key. The public works programme should remain temporary and become more focused...
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