OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2016 Issue 1
The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.
Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment, a special chapter on promoting productivity and equality, a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country and a statistical annex.
General Assessment of the Macroeconomic Situation
Eight years after the financial crisis, the recovery remains disappointingly weak. Global GDP growth is projected to be 3% in 2016, unchanged from last year, with only a modest improvement foreseen in 2017. Global trade growth also remains very subdued. Many emerging market economies (EMEs) have lost momentum, with sharp downturns in some, especially commodity producers. The upturn in the advanced economies remains modest, with growth held back by slow wage gains and subdued investment. Low commodity prices and accommodative monetary policies continue to offer support in many economies, albeit punctuated by periods of tightened and volatile financial conditions, especially early in the year. All this culminates in growth rates much weaker than anticipated a few years ago and well below pre-crisis norms. Moreover, such a prolonged period of slow growth has damaged the longer-run supply-side potential of economies, via the scarring effect of extended unemployment, foregone investment and the adverse impact of weak trade growth on productivity.