OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2012 Issue 1
The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD’s twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.
Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment, chapters summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country, a chapter on medium and long-term scenarios for growth and imbalances, and a and a statistical annex.
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Euro Area
Activity has stagnated after contracting in end-2011 and unemployment is set to rise further, owing to weak confidence and difficult financial conditions related to the sovereign debt crisis. Provided that policy actions are sufficient to improve confidence, activity will begin gradually to recover in the second half of 2012, notwithstanding fiscal consolidation and private sector deleveraging. There will be a marked divergence between stronger growth in creditor countries and a weaker and delayed recovery in those with a large debt overhang. The large margin of spare capacity will moderate underlying inflationary pressures. The main risks centre on intensification of the debt crisis and the economic effects of high public and private indebtedness.
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