The pace of recovery has slowed as a result of weak external demand, negative effects of the global slowdown on consumer and investor confidence and domestic labour unrest. As these factors ebb, growth should pick up somewhat in 2012, but remain below potential for a fifth consecutive year. As confidence returns, output growth should accelerate more decisively in 2013. Inflation is at the upper end of the central bank’s target range, but in the absence of further rises in commodity prices and given the negative output gap should ease to the middle of the target range by 2013.