OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2011 Issue 2
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OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2011 Issue 2

The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD’s twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.

Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment, chapters summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country and an extensive statistical annex.

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Publication Date :
28 Nov 2011
DOI :
10.1787/eco_outlook-v2011-2-en
 
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Author(s):
OECD
DOI :
10.1787/eco_outlook-v2011-2-42-en

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Although confidence has weakened amid the global slowdown and financial turmoil, growth momentum seems likely to be sustained, supported by still-high oil prices. The food price shock has dissipated and the strong harvest in 2011 is now reinforcing disinflation. With credit growth moderating and the output gap remaining negative, inflation is projected to fall towards 5% in 2013. The budget is expected to be balanced or in a small surplus in 2011, aided by high oil prices, but to return to deficit in 2012-13 due to a large rise in spending next year. The already wide non-oil budget deficit is projected to increase slightly in 2012 before falling back gradually. The current account surplus should narrow due to buoyant import growth. A sharp oil price correction and renewed turbulence in financial markets remain the key risk factors.

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