OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2010 Issue 1
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OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2010 Issue 1

The OECD Economic Outlook analyses the current economic situation and examines the economic policies required to foster a sustained recovery in member countries. This issue covers the outlook to end-2011 for both OECD countries and selected non-OECD economies. Together with a wide range of cross-country statistics, the Outlook provides a unique tool to keep abreast of world economic developments.

In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains three special chapters. The first covers prospects for growth & imbalances beyond the short-term, the second covers return to work after the crisis, and the third examines counter cyclical economic policy.

 

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Publication Date :
26 May 2010
DOI :
10.1787/eco_outlook-v2010-1-en
 
Chapter
 

Prospects for Growth and Imbalances beyond the Short Term You do not have access to this content

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Author(s):
OECD
Pages :
222–249
DOI :
10.1787/eco_outlook-v2010-1-45-en

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While the worst potential outcomes from the economic crisis have been avoided, in large part due to prompt and massive world-wide policy stimulus, many countries will have to face up to severe macroeconomic imbalances during the recovery period and beyond. These include large output gaps, high unemployment, wide fiscal deficits and the need to exit from exceptionally loose monetary policy. In addition, while global current-account imbalances receded in the immediate aftermath of the crisis there are concerns that they will reappear with the recovery. These imbalances are not independent and addressing some of them could aggravate others, including those in other countries, and could also endanger the recovery.1 This paper considers what combination of policies is likely to be most successful in delivering balanced global growth by means of examining a number of alternative stylised scenarios to 2025. Given the nature of the exercise, none of these scenarios should be considered as a forecast.
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