The recovery that began earlier this year in a number of non-OECD economies has now spread to the OECD area at large. But in most OECD economies, growth is likely to fluctuate around a modest underlying rate for some time to come. It is being held back by still substantial headwinds as households, financial institutions, non-financial enterprises and, eventually, governments have to repair their balance sheets. This also means that unemployment is set to move higher and already-low inflation will be under further downward pressure. It is only some time down the line that the recovery will become sufficiently strong to begin to reduce unemployment.