Mark
United States The US economy is facing extremely difficult conditions. The financial crisis has intensified at a time when growth had already been weakened by the prolonged housing downturn. A credit crunch is likely to result in a pronounced contraction in activity over the near term and a further deterioration of the labour market. Once financial conditions normalise, GDP growth should resume but at a slower pace than in past recoveries, in part because of negative wealth effects. In response to lower commodity prices and the opening of a large output gap, inflation should recede significantly to around 1½ per cent in 2010.
Japan External shocks from the run-up in commodity prices and then international financial turbulence have brought Japan’s expansion to an end. Equity prices have plummeted and the yen has appreciated substantially. With falling exports, activity is projected to remain weak through 2009, pushing up unemployment and reducing headline inflation to near zero. A recovery in domestic demand is projected to lift output growth to around 1% during 2010, still short of the growth of potential.
Euro Area The euro area economy has slipped into recession this year, with tighter financial conditions, negative wealth effects, weaker housing market activity and greater uncertainty all reducing domestic demand. Growth is expected to remain below potential until the middle of 2010, before picking-up as the effects of monetary policy easing and the dissipation of stress in global financial markets emerge. Lower commodity prices and the emergence of a sizable negative output gap will dampen inflationary pressures, with headline inflation projected to fall to around 1½ per cent during 2009.
Germany After a strong start into 2008, activity has contracted reflecting muted consumption and weakening export growth. Activity is projected to contract further in 2009 on the back of falling investment spending and weakness in the main trading partner economies. Private consumption will make a small positive contribution to growth because disinflation increases the purchasing power of past wage settlements. Activity is expected to pick up in late 2009 and return towards trend growth rates in the second half of 2010.
France Growth is likely to fall below 1% in 2008 as a whole amid sharply deteriorating global economic conditions in the latter part of the year, due primarily to the financial crisis. The impact of this turbulence will reverberate well into 2009, with negative growth expected until the middle of the year, followed by a gradual pick-up of activity to above-potential rates by mid-2010.
Italy The recession in Italy, which began early this year, is likely to extend through much of 2009, as in many other OECD countries. Global financial turmoil hit an economy already weakened by several years of low productivity growth, deteriorating competitiveness and high public debt, though solid job creation and falling unemployment had been bright spots. Recovering confidence towards the end of 2009 should allow output to accelerate significantly during 2010.
United Kingdom Economic conditions have deteriorated markedly and forward-looking indicators suggest a further sharp weakening in activity over the next quarters. The adjustment in the construction sector is expected to continue, while house prices are likely to fall further. These factors, combined with turmoil in the banking and financial sectors, are already cutting domestic demand. Growth may resume only in late 2009. Unemployment is set to rise rapidly, but should stabilise in 2010. Inflation should recede, reflecting the recent falls in energy and food prices and the increasing output gap.
Canada The economic downturn that started in 2007, as exports slowed in response to the deflating US housing bubble, continues to worsen. Sharply deteriorating conditions in global financial markets, generalised softness in the US economy and receding commodity prices are amplifying export weakness and dragging down domestic spending. Output has been contracting since August 2008, and slack is projected to grow until the global financial crisis has run its course and external demand bounces back in 2010. The domestic banking and housing sectors are in relatively good shape, however, and no government bail-outs have taken place.
Australia GDP growth could well weaken from 2½ per cent in 2008 to around 1¾ per cent in 2009 before picking up to 2¾ per cent in 2010. This would still imply that, despite the depressed international environment, the impact of the financial crisis and the fall in the terms of trade should be relatively contained. Unemployment is likely to increase, however, and inflation may dip below 3% in 2010.
Austria Largely as a result of a worsening external environment, growth has declined and the economy is set to contract in 2009 before recovering in 2010. Headline inflation is projected to ease as energy and food prices fall, economic slack increases and import prices decelerate.
Belgium Activity is projected to contract slightly and, thereafter, growth may remain below potential well into 2010, before rebounding on the back of easier monetary conditions, renewed growth in real incomes and a recovery in world trade. As a result, unemployment will increase over the projection period. Headline inflation should decline with the fall in energy and food prices, although core inflation should show more persistence.
Czech Republic Growth slowed in the first half of 2008 and is not expected to return to trend again until 2010. The slowdown started with weaker domestic demand in 2008, as the inflation spike eroded consumers' purchasing power, and will continue as export market growth slows. The rebound is projected to be driven by both private consumption and exports. Inflation is expected to decelerate substantially in 2009 as the impact of one-off government measures wears off and global energy and commodity prices fall.
Denmark After years of strong expansion, the construction boom is now over and falling house prices have put an end to debt-financed consumption growth. As the impact of global financial turmoil materialises, exports are likely to remain weak during 2009, leading businesses to cut back investment.
Finland Economic activity has slowed substantially, mainly due to a decline in investment. Output growth is projected to be subdued in 2009, before recovering during 2010. Unemployment is likely to drift up during 2009, but should stabilise in 2010. Lower commodity prices and growing slack in the economy should bring down inflation from the current high rate.
Greece Economic activity has already weakened due to slowing domestic demand. Growth is expected to be subdued until mid-2009 in the context of a sluggish external environment, but to firm gradually thereafter. Inflation is set to decline, but the persistent differential with the euro area is likely to remain.
Hungary Against the background of global financial turbulence, economic activity is set to decline in 2009, before picking up with the recovery in world trade and with higher confidence following international financing support. Inflation should decelerate towards the 3% target as wage growth remains moderate. The current account deficit should narrow.
Iceland After a long period of unbalanced growth, the Icelandic economy has entered a deep recession following the failure of its major banks. The economy is projected to shrink until early 2010 and unemployment to soar over the next two years. Following a large depreciation of the currency, inflation is projected to spike higher, though to fall back sharply once the exchange rate effects have passed through and the effects of substantial economic slack come to bear. The current account deficit should decline markedly.
Ireland Activity is contracting as the severe housing market correction has weakened the wider economy, and the weakness will persist well into 2009. Growth will recover in 2010 as the housing construction cycle bottoms out and the financial turmoil wanes.
Korea Korea has been hard-hit by the global financial crisis and the earlier commodity price shock, which together ended the expansion and pushed up inflation. Sharp won depreciation since mid-September has further clouded the economic outlook. Growth is projected to fall to below 3% in 2009 and then pick up gradually as the world economy improves.
Luxembourg The international financial crisis is sharply reducing economic growth, initially in the financial sector, but subsequently in broader domestic demand. These effects should persist into 2010. Consequently, unemployment will rise further, while core inflation will fall slowly.
Mexico Economic growth is set to fall well below potential in 2008 and 2009, before gradually recovering in 2010. The weak US economy and a fall in oil production will cut exports over the next several quarters, while the effects of the financial turmoil will depress domestic demand growth. Activity will recover through 2010 as global economic conditions improve. Inflation will return to near the target rate as commodity prices fall, activity slows and monetary tightening keeps expectations anchored, although the recent sharp depreciation of the peso will put upward pressure on prices.
Netherlands
New Zealand New Zealand has entered recession ahead of other OECD countries, a victim of simultaneous domestic and foreign shocks. The outlook remains subdued because the large macroeconomic imbalances built up over the past decade -- inflation, housing overvaluation, high household debt and a huge current account deficit -- will take some time to unwind.
Norway After the remarkable performance of the past few years, the Norwegian economy is now slowing toward its potential rate of growth. Domestic demand is moderating as a result of the increased cost of borrowing, falling house prices and declining terms of trade. Nonetheless, inflation remains higher than desirable and rising labour costs are undermining competitiveness.
Poland The pace of expansion decelerated moderately in the first half of 2008 and recent data point to a further weakening of activity. Amidst the global slowdown, growth is projected to fall below potential, although income tax cuts should support private consumption. With declining oil prices and persisting, albeit abating, demand pressures in labour and product markets, core inflation is expected to subside more gradually than headline inflation.
Portugal Economic activity moderated in the first half of 2008, as investment and export growth softened. In line with the recent intensification of the financial crisis and expectations of a significant slowing in Portugal’s export markets, activity is expected to contract until the second half of 2009, before recovering slowly in 2010. The unemployment rate is set to increase from its already high level. The sizeable negative output gap and lower food and energy prices will reduce inflation.
Slovak Republic Although the Slovak Republic will continue to maintain the highest growth rate among OECD countries over the next two years, activity is expected to decelerate significantly in 2009. In particular investment spending and trade growth are likely to be adversely affected by the effects of the financial crisis. Growth is envisaged to return to close to its potential rate towards the end of the projection horizon. Inflation rates should decline from their currently high levels, but to stay above euro area levels.
Spain GDP is projected to fall in 2009, as residential construction continues to contract, before recovering modestly in 2010. Unemployment will continue to increase substantially. Inflation should recede as a large negative output gap opens up and commodity prices moderate, while falling imports should significantly reduce the current account deficit.
Sweden The Swedish economy stalled in the first half of 2008 and is expected to weaken in the near term, as the effects of the international financial crisis take their toll. Consumption is projected to pick up late next year as the turmoil subsides and thanks to further income tax cuts and lower interest rates. Export growth should gradually recover as Sweden’s export markets expand again.
Switzerland Economic activity is expected to contract somewhat in 2009, due to poorer export prospects and a diminished contribution of financial services, followed by a rebound in 2010 as global financial market turbulence abates. Inflation is projected to fall back to 1%, reflecting lower oil prices, the opening of an output gap and wage moderation.
Turkey The economy slowed in 2008 as weakness in domestic demand was compounded by the international slowdown in the wake of financial market turbulence. Growth is expected to decline to below 2% in 2009 before recovering to 4¼ per cent in 2010, in line with the global recovery.
Brazil The expansion that gathered pace during 2007 was sustained in the first half of 2008, although activity appears to be slackening owing to a worsening of financial conditions. Domestic demand has been the main driver of growth. The trade surplus is shrinking, essentially due to buoyant demand for imports, and the current account has shifted into deficit. Dynamism in the labour market continued to deliver robust job creation. Inflation picked up considerably through mid-year.
China GDP growth has fallen, from a peak of nearly 12% to a pace in the high single digits. Export growth is weakening and, with slower capital formation, domestic demand is also projected to ease in 2009, before recovering in 2010. Disinflation is on course to continue, in part due to moderating commodity prices but also reflecting slower output growth.
India Growth has continued to slacken to under 8% by the second quarter of 2008. Inflation is high, driven by commodity prices, but the peak appears to have passed. The current account deficit has risen substantially and there is downward pressure on the exchange rate. The economy is projected to slow further over the next year and to recover in tandem with the world economy in 2010.
Russian Federation The fallout from the global financial crisis will sharply reduce real GDP growth in Russia through 2009, with a pick-up expected in 2010. With a reversal in the substantial rise in oil and metal prices, the pattern of terms of trade gains fuelling rapid growth in domestic demand has come to an end. Inflation has risen strongly, but may now have peaked and should decline in 2009-10. Fiscal and current account balances are expected to worsen sharply.
Chile After several years of robust expansion, activity is projected to moderate and inflation to recede. The slowing world economy, tighter financial conditions and lower investments in mining and energy will all slow growth. Inflation will decline gradually as second-round wage increases from high commodity prices wear off and expectations are re-anchored to the central bank’s target. Past current account surpluses have disappeared as copper prices have retreated from high levels.
Estonia Real GDP will continue to decline through to the end of 2008, reflecting mostly a sharp drop in domestic demand. Growth is projected to gradually pick up by the end of 2009 and into 2010, driven by stronger exports. Currently high inflationary pressures are expected to weaken in 2009, but the past real exchange rate appreciation will make the desired export driven recovery challenging.
Indonesia Strong domestic demand continued to underpin growth in the first half of 2008. Investment was particularly robust. Imports are growing faster than exports, but the trade and current accounts are still in healthy surpluses. Inflation rose substantially following a hike in regulated domestic fuel prices in May.
Israel Global financial turmoil is deepening the slowdown, with the pace of economic activity not expected to pick up substantially before the latter part of 2009. The central bank has already cut its policy rate in reaction to the crisis in financial markets.
Slovenia Economic activity is likely to slow significantly in 2009, driven in particular by a sharp deceleration in investment in construction. The following year, economic growth should return toward trend as both investment and private consumption recover. Headline inflation is expected to subside due to falling commodity prices, although planned public wage increases will exert upward pressure on core inflation.
South Africa This year’s economic slowdown is projected to continue, reflecting weaker consumption growth and worsening terms of trade. Real GDP growth is expected to fall to about 3% in 2009 before rebounding to above 4% in 2010, with the FIFA World Cup providing a fillip to activity. Inflation is expected to turn down, returning to the central bank’s target range in 2010, as a result of the monetary tightening over the past two years and falling food and energy prices. Current account deficits will remain large with lower export prices broadly offsetting weaker import volume growth.
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