OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2005 Issue 2
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OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2005 Issue 2

Twice a year, the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. Developments in major non-OECD economies are also evaluated. The present issue covers the outlook to end-2007. Together with a wide range of cross-country statistics, the Outlook provides a unique tool to keep abreast of world economic developments.  In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains an analytical chapter addressing the recent run-up in house prices.
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The economy has slowed during 2005, mainly as the result of a post-Olympic slump in investment activity, though it continued to outpace the euro area average. Output growth is set to weaken further going into 2006, before rebounding to 3½ per cent in 2007 as domestic demand strengthens. Inflation should decelerate to around 3¼ per cent over the next two years, but a large inflation differential vis-à-vis the euro area average will remain. The current account deficit is expected to stay high.

Sustained fiscal consolidation requires a better control of primary spending and decisive reforms in key areas of social spending and public administration. Reducing tax evasion and tax avoidance is likewise critical. Plans for improving the operation of public enterprises are welcome. Further progress in the structural reform agenda would provide a sounder environment for long-term growth.

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