OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2004 Issue 2
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OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2004 Issue 2

OECD's December 2004 assessment of economic developments and prospects.  In addition to the regular economic assessments and statistical information, this issue includes articles examining oil price developments and savings behaviour and the effectiveness of fiscal policy.
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OECD

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Output growth of close to 4 per cent is expected in 2004, easing to around 3½ per cent in 2005 and 2006, with some reduction in the exceptionally rapid pace of export growth and a further slowdown in consumption growth. Inflation is expected to come down rapidly in the near term, as the impact from one-off increases in indirect taxes fades; it is expected to continue to fall, though at a slower pace, in 2005 and 2006, despite higher oil prices Although a substantive reduction in the government's budget deficit is expected this year, a big gap between ambitions and outcomes in fiscal policy remains, making co-ordination of macroeconomic policy more difficult and raising risk premia. The new government should switch to a more credible fiscal strategy that sets more realistic targets and backs them up with a stronger commitment to sustainable spending cuts. ...
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