OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 2
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OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 2

This issue of the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends that will mark the next two years. It  covers the outlook to the end of 2005 and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. Developments in selected major non-OECD economies are also evaluated. Three analytical chapters look at fiscal policy and its influence on economic activity, fiscal relations across levels of government, and  crubing the growth in government spending and raising its  cost effectiveness.
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Domestic demand growth is weakening as the effects of earlier fiscal expansion wane. But signs of a recovery in exports are becoming visible. Together with an investment rebound driven by foreign companies, this should lead to a gradual acceleration in GDP to above 3 per cent over the next two years. Fiscal policy has embarked on a consolidation path, though a gradual one, which is likely to postpone joining the euro to 2010 or beyond. Establishing a multi-year budgeting framework will be essential to implementing the consolidation plan. Monetary policy has been successful in bringing down inflation and establishing an environment of lower interest rates...

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