OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 1
Twice a year, the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends that will mark the next two years. The present issue covers the outlook to the end of 2004 and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. Developments in selected major non-OECD economies are also evaluated.
In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains five analytical chapters addressing the following questions: the telecommunications sector, sources of divergence in growth trends among the major economies, recent patterns and developments in foreign direct investment, and whether further trade and regulatory policy reforms would affect foreign direct investment flows and economic integration among OECD countries.
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New Zealand
Activity is expected to slow in 2003 after four years of healthy growth. Continued strength in domestic demand will not suffice to offset the damping effects of weaker terms of trade and a sharply higher currency. However, the slowdown is likely to be short-lived, with growth returning to its medium-term potential rate of 3 per cent in 2004.
The currency appreciation has taken the pressure off monetary policy, as it should drive inflation down to the middle of the 1 to 3 per cent target range. Hence, interest rates can be left unchanged for the time being. The budget remains in surplus, and the government is prudently not raising expenditure in response to higher-than-expected revenues until it is confident that the fiscal surprise will prove permanent.
Also available in: French
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