OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 1
Twice a year, the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends that will mark the next two years. The present issue covers the outlook to the end of 2004 and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. Developments in selected major non-OECD economies are also evaluated.
In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains five analytical chapters addressing the following questions: the telecommunications sector, sources of divergence in growth trends among the major economies, recent patterns and developments in foreign direct investment, and whether further trade and regulatory policy reforms would affect foreign direct investment flows and economic integration among OECD countries.
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Mexico
The economy is experiencing a weak recovery, based on higher exports of manufactures to the United States. GDP growth is expected to gather pace as confidence improves and firms increase investment. The passthrough from currency depreciation will be moderated by tight policies and inflation is expected to fall. The current account deficit, which narrowed to a record low in 2002, is expected to widen gradually as activity gains momentum.
Economic policies were tightened in 2002 and early 2003 in the context of a weaker peso and stalling disinflation. This stance needs to be maintained to keep disinflation and fiscal consolidation on target and retain market confidence. Implementation of the reform of the electricity industry and the tax system would boost investor confidence and growth prospects.
Also available in: French
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