Twice a year, the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends that will mark the next two years. The present issue covers the outlook to the end of 2004 and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. Developments in selected major non-OECD economies are also evaluated.
In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains five analytical chapters addressing the following questions: the telecommunications sector, sources of divergence in growth trends among the major economies, recent patterns and developments in foreign direct investment, and whether further trade and regulatory policy reforms would affect foreign direct investment flows and economic integration among OECD countries.
- 13 June 2003
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After unexpected resilience in 2002, real GDP growth is forecast to slow to 3¼ per cent in 2003, before rebounding to 4¼ per cent in 2004 with the strengthening of export market growth. Wage pressure is expected to weaken throughout the forecast period. While inflation is also forecast to fall, it is likely to remain above the European Union average, reflecting persistent price pressures in the service sector.
Now that private sector wages have begun to adjust to slower growth, the planned increase in public sector pay should be strictly conditional upon demonstrated higher efficiency in that sector. The projected public finance position looks healthy, but its realisation will require significant efforts to tighten control over expenditures.