OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 1
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OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2003 Issue 1

Twice a year, the OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major trends that will mark the next two years. The present issue covers the outlook to the end of 2004 and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. Developments in selected major non-OECD economies are also evaluated.

In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains five analytical chapters addressing the following questions: the telecommunications sector,  sources of divergence in growth trends among the major economies, recent patterns and developments in foreign direct investment,  and whether further trade and regulatory policy reforms would affect foreign direct investment flows and economic integration among OECD countries.

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Author(s):
OECD

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With major imbalances having been corrected, recovery is likely to gather pace around the middle of the year when large-scale investments in power-intensive industries will begin to boost demand and push growth above potential rates.

Tighter monetary conditions will be required once growth picks up and a positive output gap re-emerges in order to prevent overheating in the middle of the decade. Fiscal policy will need to support this effort by moving toward a restrictive stance. In particular, it will be important to avoid an overlap of public infrastructure investments with the gearing-up of the power-intensive projects.

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