OECD Economics Department Working Papers

ISSN :
1815-1973 (online)
DOI :
10.1787/18151973
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Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.
 

New OECD Methods for Supply-side and Medium-term Assessments

A Capital Services Approach You or your institution have access to this content

Authors:
Pierre-Olivier Beffy, Patrice Ollivaud, Pete Richardson, Franck Sédillot
Publication Date
06 July 2006
Bibliographic information
No.:
482
Pages
53
DOI
10.1787/628752675863

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The OECD makes frequent use of the supply-side framework and associated measures of factor productivity, productive potential and associated output gaps in the assessment of the short-term conjunctural situation, comparative economic performance and longer-term growth determinants. This paper describes a number of recent changes and improvements in the methods used in estimating potential output for OECD countries and the systems in which they are used, notably for the production of mediumterm economic scenarios. By and large, these reflect important changes and improvements in available statistical data sets, notably for measuring productive capital, as well as the development of more efficient model-based methods for making medium-term projections on a consistent international basis.
Keywords:
production function, medium-term projections, macroeconomic modelling, capital services, OECD, potential output
JEL Classification:
  • C53: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Econometric Modeling / Forecasting and Prediction Methods; Simulation Methods
  • E22: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment / Capital; Investment; Capacity
  • E23: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment / Production
  • E27: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment / Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
  • E32: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles / Business Fluctuations; Cycles
  • F17: International Economics / Trade / Trade Forecasting and Simulation
  • F47: International Economics / Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance / Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications