OECD Economics Department Working Papers

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Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.

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Modelling Manufacturing Export Volumes Equations

A System Estimation Approach You or your institution have access to this content

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Keiko Murata, Dave Turner, David Rae1, Laurence Le Fouler
Author Affiliations
  • 1: OECD, France

Publication Date
06 Apr 2000
Bibliographic information

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International trade is a principle transmission mechanism by which developments in one country can have repercussions in others and how it is modelled is an important part of any multi-country model. This paper describes recent estimation work carried out by the OECD, which respecifies and updates the equations which determine manufactures export volumes in the OECD INTERLINK model. An important feature of this estimation work is that the relevant equations are estimated as a consistent system, allowing data acceptable parameter restrictions to be imposed across countries. For a number of countries and regions allowance is also made for the possible influence of supply-side factors on market share performance over and above that explained by changes in price competitiveness, using non-linear trend variables. The paper reports both estimation results and the simulation properties of the equations both in isolation and as part of corresponding country models and the fully linked ...

exports, forecasting and simulation, trade
JEL Classification:
  • C20: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Single Equation Models; Single Variables / General
  • C22: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Single Equation Models; Single Variables / Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
  • C23: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Single Equation Models; Single Variables / Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models
  • F17: International Economics / Trade / Trade Forecasting and Simulation
  • F47: International Economics / Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance / Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications