OECD Economics Department Working Papers

ISSN :
1815-1973 (online)
DOI :
10.1787/18151973
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Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.
 

Long-Term Growth Scenarios You or your institution have access to this content

Authors:
Åsa Johansson, Yvan Guillemette1, Fabrice Murtin1, David Turner, Giuseppe Nicoletti, Christine de la Maisonneuve, Philip Bagnoli1, Guillaume Bousquet1, Francesca Spinelli1
Author Affiliations
  • 1: OECD, France

Publication Date
28 Jan 2013
Bibliographic information
No.:
1000
Pages
91
DOI
10.1787/5k4ddxpr2fmr-en

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This paper presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared with variant scenarios assuming deeper policy reforms. One main finding is that growth of the non-OECD G20 countries will continue to outpace OECD countries, but the difference will narrow substantially over coming decades. In parallel, the next 50 years will see major changes in the composition of the world economy. In the absence of ambitious policy changes, global imbalances will emerge which could undermine growth. However, ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts and deep structural reforms can both raise long-run living standards and reduce the risks of major disruptions to growth by mitigating global imbalances.
Keywords:
long run, growth, human capital, global imbalances, productivity, fiscal and structural policy, conditional convergence, current accounts, saving
JEL Classification:
  • E27: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment / Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
  • F43: International Economics / Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance / Economic Growth of Open Economies
  • H68: Public Economics / National Budget, Deficit, and Debt / Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
  • I25: Health, Education, and Welfare / Education and Research Institutions / Education and Economic Development
  • J11: Labor and Demographic Economics / Demographic Economics / Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
  • O11: Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth / Economic Development / Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
  • O43: Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth / Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity / Institutions and Growth
  • O47: Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth / Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity / Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence