Consumer sentiment surveys are regularly conducted in at least forty-five countries. The surveys are based on the premise that data on consumer expectations represent a leading indicator of future changes in the macro economy. A series of Granger ...

The deviation cycles in the manufacturing industry of nine OECD-countries are identified by applying the Christiano-Fitzgerald band-pass filter. Turning points, low- and high-growth phases and other descriptive statistics are derived from these ...

We evaluate techniques for comparing the ability of Markov regime switching (MRS) models to fit underlying regimes of a series of interest. This is particularly important in the business cycle literature where one may be interested in determining ...

Effective business cycle analysis, and indeed the monitoring of a countries economic performance from a policy perspective, requires access to timely high quality short-term economic statistics (STES). Consequently in recent years there has been a ...

This paper documents a number of stylized facts of quarterly frequency cyclical fluctuations in a specific group of developing economies, previously belonging to the same country organization, the former Soviet Union. We find that in these countries ...