OECD Economics Department Working Papers

ISSN: 
1815-1973 (online)
DOI: 
10.1787/18151973
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Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.

The views expressed in these papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries.

 

Indicator Models of Real GDP Growth in Selected OECD Countries You or your institution have access to this content

English
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Author(s):
Franck Sédillot, Nigel Pain1
Author Affiliations
  • 1: OECD, France

22 July 2003
Bibliographic information
No.:
364
Pages:
50
DOI: 
10.1787/275257320252

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Accurate and timely information on the current state of economic activity is an important requirement for the policymaking process. Delays in the publication of official statistics mean that a complete picture of economic developments within a particular period emerges only some time after that period has elapsed. The research described in this paper develops a set of econometric models that provide estimates of GDP growth for a number of major OECD countries and zones in the two quarters following the last quarter for which official data have been published. These models exploit the considerable amount of monthly conjunctural information that becomes available before the release of official national accounts data. Information is incorporated from both ‘soft’ indicators, such as business surveys, and ‘hard’ indicators, such as industrial production and retail sales, and use is made of different frequencies of data and a variety of estimation techniques. An automated procedure is ...

Keywords:
bridge equations, indicator models, short-term economic forecasts, monthly data
JEL Classification:
  • C52: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Econometric Modeling / Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
  • C53: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Econometric Modeling / Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods
  • E37: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles / Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
 
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