Growth and Sustainability in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and South Africa
Growth and Sustainability in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and South Africa is based on the proceedings of a conference, organised by the OECD, on the growth performance of these large emerging-market economies. The book brings together contributions from distinguished policy makers and scholars. It discusses the growth experiences of these countries, including how they have fared in the wake of the recent global financial crisis. It also examines these countries’ prospects for sustaining strong growth over the long term.
The chapters in this book offer new analyses of the growth process in individual countries. They explore, for example, the reduction of external vulnerability in Brazil, the contribution of human and physical capital accumulation in China and Indonesia, initiatives to promote infrastructure and social development in India, and financial deepening in South Africa. These chapters identify the specific drivers of growth in each country, and thus strengthen our understanding of the policy levers that can be used to sustain growth in the years to come.
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A brief history of Brazil's growth
This chapter focuses on the Brazilian growth experience and begins with a brief overview of events that marked the country’s development from its discovery in 1500 to the 19th century. The chapter then divides the years between 1900 and 2008 into four periods, based on the methodology developed by Bai and Perron (1998, 2003) to identify structural breaks in statistical series. We identify regime changes in 1918, 1967 and 1980. Growth accounting is subsequently used to analyse the behaviour of productivity in the post-World War II period and suggests that high inflation might have been a reason for a decline in productivity between 1980 and the mid-1990s.
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