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Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.
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Economic Uncertainties and their Impact on Activity in Greece compared with Ireland and Portugal
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- Jan-David Schneider1, 2, Claude Giorno1
- Author Affiliations
- 1: OECD, France
- 2: European Policy Centre (EPC), Belgium
- 21 July 2014
- Bibliographic information
Uncertainty faced by households and firms affects economic activity. The rise in uncertainty since the beginning of the sovereign debt crisis in Greece could be one factor that has contributed to the steep and long-lasting recession. This paper presents a brief empirical analysis quantifying this phenomenon and compares it with developments in Ireland and Portugal. Overall, this analysis shows that the uncertainty impact on growth has been relatively small in Greece between 2008 and 2013, although stronger than in Ireland or Portugal. This quantification appears to be robust to various specification changes of the vector auto regressive models developed for this exercise. This working paper relates to the 2013 Economic Survey of Greece (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/greece)
- private consumption, confidence, investment, Greece, Portugal, simulations, GDP, vector auto regressive model, uncertainty, Ireland, activity
- JEL Classification:
- E25: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy / Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
- E65: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics / Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook / Studies of Particular Policy Episodes