Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis

Frequency
3 times a year
ISSN: 
1729-3626 (online)
ISSN: 
1729-3618 (print)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/17293626
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The Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis has been discontinued as of 24 June 2016. This journal was published jointly with CIRET from 2004 to 2015. For more information see www.ciret.org/jbcy.

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Article
 

Deviation Cycles in Manufacturing

Business Cycle Measurement and Leading Indicators You do not have access to this content

English
 
Click to Access: 
    http://oecd.metastore.ingenta.com/content/3307011ec003.pdf
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Author(s):
Ard H. J. den Reijer
16 July 2007
Pages:
35
Bibliographic information
No.:
3,
Volume:
2007,
Issue:
1
Pages:
43–77
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2007-art3-en

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The deviation cycles in the manufacturing industry of nine OECD-countries are identified by applying the Christiano-Fitzgerald band-pass filter. Turning points, low- and high-growth phases and other descriptive statistics are derived from these deviation cycles. A regression based test statistic is applied to test for duration dependence. Moreover, the international linkage between the cyclical motions in the manufacturing industry of two countries is investigated by measuring the degree of synchronisation. In addition to measuring the cyclical fluctuation, a composite leading indicator is constructed which replicates and predicts the deviation cycle in the manufacturing industry. This composite leading indicator is a single index composed of economic, financial and expectation variables possessing leading properties.

 
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