Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis

Frequency
3 times a year
ISSN: 
1729-3626 (online)
ISSN: 
1729-3618 (print)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/17293626
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The Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis has been discontinued as of 24 June 2016. This journal was published jointly with CIRET from 2004 to 2015. For more information see www.ciret.org/jbcy.

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Article
 

Coincident and Leading Indicators of Manufacturing Industry You do not have access to this content

English
 
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    http://oecd.metastore.ingenta.com/content/3304011ec007.pdf
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Author(s):
Richard Etter, Michael Graff
12 Dec 2003
Pages:
23
Bibliographic information
No.:
7,
Volume:
2004,
Issue:
1
Pages:
109–131
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art7-en

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The Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research regularly conducts business tendency surveys (BTS) amongst manufacturing firms. The information thus generated is available with a publication lead to the official Swiss sales, production, order and inventory statistics. It is shown that the survey data can be used to generate reasonably precise estimates of the reference series with leads of at least one quarter. Specifically, cross-correlations of quarterly series are computed to screen the data for pairs of highly correlated business tendency survey series and corresponding official statistics. All pairs are identified where the maximum correlation shows up simultaneously or with a lead of the survey based series and exceeds a given threshold...

 
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