OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis

Frequency
Semiannual
ISSN: 
1995-2899 (online)
ISSN: 
1995-2880 (print)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/19952899
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The Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis has been discontinued as of 24 June 2016. This journal was published jointly with CIRET from 2004 to 2015. For more information see www.ciret.org/jbcy.

Article
 

Business cycle dynamics

A bottom-up approach with Markov-chain measurement You do not have access to this content

English
 
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    http://oecd.metastore.ingenta.com/content/3315011ec005.pdf
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Author(s):
Christian Müller, Eva Köberl
30 Oct 2015
Pages:
21
Bibliographic information
No.:
3,
Volume:
2015,
Issue:
1
Pages:
41–61
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2015-5jrs0lv6xs7b

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Business cycle dynamics can be seen as footprints left by individual decision makers. Tracing those footprints we offer a novel, largely model independent and exogenous measure of the business cycle dynamics. This measure also, allows for distinguishing positive and negative shocks without prior estimation. Utilizing more than twentythousand observations of firms surveyed quarterly in the periods (1999-2006), we employ a Markov-chain approach combined with conventional time series econometrics for gauging the dynamics of business cycles. Since we start the analysis with firm level data we label our method the "bottom-up approach".

 
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