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Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.
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An Update of the OECD International Trade Equations
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- Myriam Morin1, Cyrille Schwellnus2
- Author Affiliations
- 1: Direction Générale du Trésor, France
- 2: OECD, France
- 23 June 2014
- Bibliographic information
This paper provides a detailed description of recent research to re-estimate and re-specify the international trade volume and price equations that are used in the OECD Economics Department to analyse and project international trade developments. The set of countries covered by the estimations has been significantly enlarged, with estimates of the factors affecting export performance, import penetration and trade prices presented for 41 countries, including countries that have recently joined the OECD (Chile, Estonia, Israel and Slovenia) and major emerging countries (Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa). Reflecting the heterogeneity of countries included in the estimations, procedures for grouping them have been modified to allow for country specifics as much as possible. Structural breaks over the estimation period – which now typically covers the mid-1980s to 2012 and includes the global trade collapse of 2009 – are dealt with by the flexible modelling of deterministic trends, including the allowance for several rather than single trend reversals.
- trade forecasting, trade elasticity, trade
- JEL Classification:
- F14: International Economics / Trade / Empirical Studies of Trade
- F17: International Economics / Trade / Trade Forecasting and Simulation