CEPAL Review

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3 times a year
ISSN: 
1684-0348 (online)
http://dx.doi.org/10.18356/bf11809a-en
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Cepal Review is the leading journal for the study of economic and social development issues in Latin America and the Caribbean. Edited by the Economic Commission for Latin America, each issue focuses on economic trends, industrialization, income distribution, technological development and monetary systems, as well as the implementation of economic reform and transfer of technology. Written in English and Spanish (Revista de la Cepal), each tri-annual issue offers approximately 12 studies and essays undertaken by authoritative experts or gathered from conference proceedings.
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Article
 

Expectations and industrial output in Uruguay: Sectoral inter dependence and common trends You do not have access to this content

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    http://oecd.metastore.ingenta.com/content/876181a5-en.pdf
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Author(s):
Bibiana Lanzilotta
31 Dec 2014
Pages:
26
Bibliographic information
No.:
6,
Volume:
2014,
Issue:
113
Pages:
89–114
http://dx.doi.org/10.18356/876181a5-en

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This paper examines the interdependence between expectations and growth by analysing Uruguayan manufacturing industry, divided for the purpose into four industry groupings differentiated by trade participation and production specialization. The study shows that there is a long-run relationship between industrialists’ expectations and output growth in each grouping. In the most trade-oriented groupings the relationship is one of predetermination, showing how useful expectations are as a guide to sectoral growth. Expectations in the four industrial groupings are shown to follow a common long-run trend, identified with the one guiding the export grouping. Impulse-response simulations derived from a multisectoral vector autoregression (var) model confirm the important role of the industries most exposed to international competition in spreading shorter-term shocks.
Also available in Spanish