Southeast Asian Economic Outlook

OECD Development Centre

2225-3998 (online)
2225-398X (print)
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Southeast Asian Economic Outlook 2011/12

Southeast Asian Economic Outlook 2011/12 You do not have access to this content

OECD Development Centre

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18 Jan 2012
9789264166882 (PDF) ;9789264166868(print)

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This edition of the Southeast Asian Economic Outlook examines the macroeconomic situation, policies and medium-term growth prospects for countries in the region; structural challenges; green growth strategies, policies and institutions; and environmental taxes. It finds that growth for the region will moderate in the near term but solid growth performance will continue until 2016. To sustain this favourable outlook, countries need to meet considerable structural challenges. Green growth offers an alternative growth strategy in the long term.
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  • Foreword
    Increased global uncertainty is casting a shadow over the economic outlook of Southeast Asia. Yet, as opposed to most OECD economies, the region will enjoy solid growth until 2016. According to this second edition of the Southeast Asian Economic Outlook, real gross domestic product is projected to grow at 5.6% per year on average during 2012-16 in the six Southeast Asian economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam), a rate of expansion that is slightly lower than the average of the pre-2008 crisis period (6.1% for 2003-07).
  • Acronyms and abbreviations
  • Preface
    There is "no decoupling" for Southeast Asia from the global economic slowdown. A marked deterioration in confidence and continued financial market turmoil will have an impact on the region's growth prospect. The effect of such negative spillover is different from one country to another. Nonetheless, the overall growth impetus will remain robust, underpinned by the strength of domestic demand thanks to large-scale investments in infrastructure and buoyant private consumption. As stated in this second edition of the Southeast Asian Economic Outlook (SAEO), the nature of growth is changing and the region will rely increasingly on domestic drivers to improve economic resilience in the medium term.
  • Executive summary
    Growth for six Southeast Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam) will moderate towards the first quarter of 2012 but remain robust through 2016, according to the OECD Development Centre’s Medium-term Projection Framework. The six Southeast Asian countries will have achieved the pre-crisis level – an average gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 5.9% by 2016 (5.6% per annum on average 2012-16), recovering from a slight moderation of 5.0% in 2011. The growth momentum for the Emerging Asia (six Southeast Asian countries, China and India) as a whole is also robust with an average growth rate of 8.2% in 2011.
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  • Expand / Collapse Hide / Show all Abstracts Regional Economic Monitor

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    • Medium-term growth and recent macroeconomic situation
      The global financial crisis has underscored the need for Southeast Asian economies to rethink their past growth strategies. The export-oriented growth strategies, although successful in earlier decades, have shown their weaknesses. Looking beyond the near future, where are the region’s economies heading in the next five years? Southeast Asian countries need to search for a new development model and exploit new sources of growth.
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  • Expand / Collapse Hide / Show all Abstracts Policy Challenges and Responses

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    • Coping with global uncertainty
      Southeast Asian countries are now grappling with several policy challenges arising from global economic shocks to their economies. Capital inflows into the region have surged and reached historically high levels. While sustained capital inflows are generally beneficial to recipient countries, past experience indicates that temporary surges can adversely affect international competitiveness by pushing real exchange rates to unsustainable levels and increase risks of excesses in domestic financial markets. Rising international commodity prices are posing further policy challenges by adding to domestic inflationary pressures and imposing burdens on poor households.
    • Structural policy country notes
      Effective implementation of national development plans is a prerequisite for sustained growth in the post-crisis period. Many Asian countries recognise the need to change their growth strategies to reflect the changing growth dynamism in the region and indeed have included (or are about to include) several new elements in their medium-term development plans.
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  • Expand / Collapse Hide / Show all Abstracts Thematics Focus on Green Growth

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    • Carbon emissions and footprints of nations
      Over the past two decades, Southeast Asia has enjoyed strong growth performance amid great diversity on both economic and non-economic fronts. Such regional characteristics put clear marks on national carbon emission inventories. Though relatively modest in absolute terms, the amount of "carbon trade", measured as carbon emissions embodied in international trade flows, relative to national emissions is larger in several ASEAN countries than in China or India.
    • Green growth strategies, policies and institutions
      Southeast Asia is one of the fastest growing regions in the world. Rapid export-led economic growth in the past two decades has lifted millions of people out of poverty. However, there is growing recognition among policy makers in the region that an export-led strategy focusing mainly on growth has been energy-intensive and may not be sustainable in the long term. Attention is increasingly turning to evolving new development strategies that would spur greener growth; that is, growth that requires less energy while protecting the environment.
    • Environmental tax and green growth
      Environmental tax instruments (ETIs) have become the key tools for achieving environmental objectives in the OECD and many non-OECD economies. As market based instruments (MBI) that make use of price signals and incentives, ETIs can more closely achieve environmental goals at a lower cost to society than older command and control (CC) instruments such as quotas and mandates.
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