Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India

OECD Development Centre

2310-1113 (online)
2310-1105 (print)
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The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India provides an update of medium-term macroeconomic trends (including five-year projections and impact of monetary easing in OECD countries on Asia), country-specific structural policy notes and a thematic focus which varies in each volume.

Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2016

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Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2016

Enhancing Regional Ties You do not have access to this content

OECD Development Centre

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22 Jan 2016
9789264243842 (PDF) ;9789264243781(print)

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The annual Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India examines Asia’s regional economic growth, development and regional integration process. It focuses on the economic conditions of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. It also addresses relevant economic issues in People’s Republic of China and India to fully reflect economic developments in the region. The 2016 edition of the Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India comprises three main parts, each highlighting a particular dimension of recent economic developments in the region. The first part presents the regional economic monitor, depicting the medium-term economic outlook and macroeconomic challenges in the region. The second part consists of three chapters on "enhancing regional ties", which is the special thematic focus of this edition. The third part includes structural policy country notes.

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  • Foreword and Acknowledgements

    The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India is an annual publication on Asia’s regional economic growth, development and regional integration processes. It focuses on the economic conditions of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries (Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam) and two large economies in the region, China and India. This publication evolved from the Southeast Asian Economic Outlook.

  • Acronyms and abbreviations
  • Editorial

    Growth in Emerging Asia (Southeast Asia, China and India) is expected to moderate over the medium term but still remain robust, backed by solid macroeconomic fundamentals and domestic demand. GDP growth in the region is forecast to average 6.2% per year over 2016-20. However, several downside risks require careful attention. The effects of a growth slowdown in China are likely to be felt in economies in the region through trade and investment channels. Lower productivity growth risks damaging confidence and impeding recovery from the global slowdown. The prospect of monetary normalisation in the United States may also create negative impacts on the countries in the region.

  • Executive summary

    The 2016 edition of the Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India focuses on three main areas: Chapter 1 examines the regional economic outlook up to 2020; Chapters 2 to 5 look at the prospects and challenges for regional integration; and Chapter 6 provides detailed country notes on the prospects for structural policy in the region.

  • Overview: Promoting growth through structural reform and regional integration
  • Economic outlook and assessments on macroeconomic and structural reforms in Emerging Asia

    Growth in Emerging Asia will remain fairly robust, but look set to moderate somewhat in the medium term. Slowing or stable growth is forecast for most of the ASEAN-5 countries, though Thailand is expected to recover from recent sluggish growth and decline. Growth will also recover in Brunei Darussalam but will slow slightly in Singapore. The CLM countries will continue to be among the fastest-growing in the region. China’s growth is expected to continue to slow as India’s economy continues its strong performance. Consumption will become more important to growth in much of Emerging Asia, leading to narrower current account surpluses in China and the ASEAN-5. Fiscal balances will remain mostly stable. External and domestic risks are still facing the region and could negatively affect future growth. China’s slowdown, US monetary policy normalisation and slow productivity growth are particularly important challenges. Addressing these issues and continuing to deepen regional integration will be critical in ensuring continued growth.

  • Assessment of progress in regional integration in Emerging Asia

    Various frameworks for regional integration have been used to build co-operative solutions to a range of issues of shared concern. In particular, the establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community by end-2015 is seen as a major milestone. The progress made and remaining challenges in deepening regional integration, however, have varied across key policy areas: trade in goods; trade in services; investment and capital market liberalisation; competition and consumer protection; intellectual property; infrastructure and connectivity; small and medium-sized enterprises; food, agriculture and forestry; tourism; human and social development aspects of integration; and Initiative for ASEAN Integration (IAI). Further efforts in co-ordination, the reduction of disparities, global integration, monitoring, addressing new policy areas and reducing corruption at national and regional levels will be needed to realise current and future regional goals.

  • Strengthening institutional capacity for integration in Emerging Asia

    While limitations in regional institutional capacities can pose obstacles to integration efforts, effective co-ordination between regional, sub-regional and national targets is critical in designing and implementing regional initiatives. These initiatives are generally not closely aligned with national development priorities, suggesting that national expertise and sub-regional initiatives can be better used in constructing regional plans. The relative underdevelopment of the CLM countries poses an additional challenge to their contributing to co-operative efforts, though work is being done to narrow these development gaps. A practical solution to be pursued in the short term to help motivate and facilitate greater achievement of regional goals would be to improve monitoring efforts through the use of existing frameworks such as ASEAN+6, the creation of new indicators and policy dialogue through peer review and other tools.

  • Integration and renewable energy in Emerging Asia

    Regional co-operation in the green growth and energy area is limited in Emerging Asia. In particular, enhancing co-operation in renewable energies will be critical to ensure sustainable growth. Renewables are likely to become more important as demand for energy increases. While much of the region’s potential remains untapped, barriers to trade in energy will need to be overcome to make the full use of these resources. Hydropower in the Mekong River Basin offers a useful example not only of the promise of power generation from renewable sources, but also the need for improved environmental and economic co-operation in managing these resources.

  • Reaping the benefits of regional integration in Emerging Asia: Private sector development

    Emerging Asia’s private sector is becoming increasingly global as its firms – its large firms in particular – expand their trade and investment relationships within the region and beyond. FDI inflows are growing and a number of large merger and acquisition deals highlight the strength of many of these international firms. Challenges remain at the same time, as these results are more mixed at the country and sector levels and greenfield foreign direct investment inflows have recently been declining. Firms also continue to see a number of major challenges emerging within the region that will have to be addressed by individual countries and by the region as a whole, including obstacles related to trade, infrastructure and logistics, policy and regulation, and labour markets. The ASEAN Economic Community is expected to enhance cross-border production linkages further.

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