03 mai 2013
Opening the Black Box of Contract Renegotiations
This paper studies the renegotiations of road concessions in Chile, Colombia and Peru for the period 1993-2010. First, it analyses the legal framework, the institutional design and the types of concessions of these countries and second, it uses a novel data composed of a sample of 61 of the 62...
09 avr 2013
The Politics of Transport Infrastructure Policies in Colombia
This paper analyses the Policy-Making Process (PMP) of transport infrastructure projects in Colombia for the period 2002-10. It aims to identify the main bottlenecks to improve the implementation of public policies in the main phases of the transport infrastructure policy cycle, namely...
23 nov 2012
What Drives Tax Morale?
This paper reviews the literature and contributes with some evidence based on the World Values Survey on the drivers of tax morale around the world, with an emphasis on developing countries. It shows that socio-economic factors such as age, religion, gender, employment status and educational...
25 sep 2012
On the Relevance of Relative Poverty for Developing Countries
Poverty is typically measured in different ways in developing and advanced countries. The majority of developing countries measure poverty in absolute terms, using a poverty line determined by the monetary cost of a predetermined basket of goods. In contrast, most analyses of poverty in...
13 juin 2012
Development Accounting: Lessons for Latin America
This paper presents development accounting exercises in Latin America using novel databases and methods to investigate the robustness of its results. While total factor productivity initially appears to be the most important driver of output per worker gaps in Latin America and the Caribbean,...
31 mai 2012
South-South Migration in West Africa
Although South-South migrants face much of the same discrimination and integration challenges as their South-North counterparts, South-South flows need to be analysed from a different standpoint. An investigation of immigrant experience in West Africa, with particular focus on Ghana, shows that...
11 mai 2012
The Product Space and the Middle-Income Trap
Rapid and sustained economic growth in the emerging world has brought new members, notably China, into the group of middle-income countries. Reaching this level of income, however, has historically presented countries with a new set of challenges to development, resulting in slowing growth and...
21 mars 2012
Korea's Low-Carbon Green Growth Strategy
This paper examines Korea’s low-carbon green growth strategy with a focus on three pillars: regulations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from industries; incentive mechanisms for businesses to develop green technologies and products; and public information tools to increase awareness and...
31 jan 2012
Making Reform Happen in Colombia
This paper studies the interaction between different actors in the policy-making process
of fiscal transfer reform in Colombia. To analyse this reform, we use the "life cycle of reform"
framework. In that context, we follow critical phases in the reform process: planning, dialogue
01 mars 2012
Technological Upgrading in China and India
This paper studies sources of technological upgrading in China and India. What is
striking about the impressive growth of China and (to a lesser degree) India is that they export
products associated with a high productivity level that is much higher than a country at their
income level. China’s...
05 jan 2012
Labour Market Changes, Labour Disputes and Social Cohesion in China
Jobs are important in maintaining social cohesion. Employment provides income, but also
a sense of self-worth and a meeting place for social interactions that weave the social fabric. With
over 200 million unemployed globally, the number of jobs created has taken centre stage,
21 déc 2011
Revisiting MDG Cost Estimates from a Domestic Resource Mobilisation Perspective
This paper aims at providing an estimate of the resource envelope required in order to
achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) on the global level. As widely
acknowledged by previous contributors to this literature, modelling the cost of achieving the
MDGs poses many data and...
20 oct 2011
Being "Middle-Class" in Latin America
This paper joins the debate on the size of the middle class in Latin America, analysing its structure and characteristics. The paper investigates inter-class mobility potential and its evolution over time in the case of selected countries. As a result of the estimations, we find that Latin...
01 oct 2011
The Process of Reform in Latin America
This paper contributes to literature on the process of reform in Latin America. We study political economy aspects and the policy making process of reforms in what we identify as the five critical steps through the "life cycle" of a policy reform: the Planning, Dialogue, Adoption,...
01 sep 2011
Sovereign Wealth Funds as Investors in Africa
This paper studies the opportunities and barriers for Sovereign Wealth Funds’ (SWFs) investments in Africa. Based on historical databases on SWFs’ transactions, it shows that SWFs can facilitate up to 50% of the investment needs in infrastructure in Africa over the next decade to meet the...
01 jui 2011
Recalibrating Development Co-operation
With the recent boost of emerging economies in African economic relations, a different philosophy of development co-operation is progressively gaining momentum. Indeed, there are critical differences in the way development co-operation is provided by traditional and emerging partners. For the...
07 juin 2011
Public Infrastructure Investment and Fiscal Sustainability in Latin America
Latin American countries exhibit a significant gap in infrastructure stocks, due to low and in many cases inefficient public investment, which is furthermore not compensated by private sector projects. In this paper we analyse trends in public and total infrastructure investment in six large...
07 juin 2011
"Stay With Us?" The Impact of Emigration on Wages in Honduras
While the econometric literature on the impact of immigration on labour markets is well developed, there is a striking gap with regards to the impact of emigration on sending countries. Building on the established literature measuring the impact of immigration, this paper attempts to narrow...
01 mai 2011
Continental vs. Intercontinental Migration
This working paper uses an agricultural household model to explore the impact of potential immigration policy reforms on the welfare of rural households in Burkina Faso. Simulation results demonstrate that, in contrast to continental migration, increased intercontinental migration has strong...
01 mai 2011
The Impact of Migration Policies on Rural Household Welfare in Mexico and Nicaragua
This working paper presents findings from an effort to evaluate the impacts of immigration policies on the welfare of migrants and their families in migrant-sending countries. It uses a disaggregated micro economy-wide modelling approach, designed to capture both the potentially positive and...
01 mars 2011
Ascendance by Descendants?
This paper studies intergenerational social mobility in Latin America. We show that persistence in educational achievements across generations is high compared to other parts of the world. That is, not only is the income distribution in Latin America highly unequal, but profound differences in...
01 fév 2011
The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations
In this paper we study the macroeconomic effects of large exchange rate appreciations. In a sample of 128 countries since 1960, we identify 25 episodes of large nominal and real appreciations shocks and study their macroeconomic effects in a dummy-augmented panel autoregressive model. Our...
01 jan 2011
The Economy of the Possible
Social protection coverage is quite low in Latin America. This situation, irrespective of the
type of pension scheme, represents a challenge for public policy since these low levels of
affiliation and irregular contribution histories indicate that pensions will be insufficient in the
25 oct 2010
Taxation and More Representation?
Is the social contract in Latin America broken? Many authors have suggested this is the case, given the high levels of inequality, the low levels of taxation and the low quality of public services observed in the region. This paper analyses empirically the relationship between fiscal policy,...
25 oct 2010
Rethinking the (European) Foundations of Sub-Saharan African Regional Economic Integration
Support for regional economic integration in Africa runs high amongst the continent’s international development partners and African elites. However, its expression in European forms of economic integration is not appropriate to regional capacities and in some cases may do more harm than good....
01 sep 2010
The Renminbi and Poor-Country Growth
Discussions on how best to exit from global imbalances to create a more balanced world
economy have ignored the impact on poor countries of proposals to redress these imbalances.
This paper aims at filling that gap. It gauges the degree of renminbi (RMB) undervaluation;
presents evidence on RMB...
25 août 2010
Fiscal Policy in Latin America
This paper analyses fiscal policy for several economies in Latin America, from the early nineties to the 2009 crisis. We present original estimates of cyclically-adjusted public revenues for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay implementing the standardised...
21 avr 2010
On the Role of Productivity and Factor Accumulation in Economic Development in Latin America and the Caribbean
This paper combines development and growth accounting exercises with
economic theory to estimate the relative importance of total factor productivity and the
accumulation of factors of production in the economic development performance of
Latin America. The region’s development performance is...
21 avr 2010
South America for the Chinese?
The case for a natural resource curse is based on the argument that in the absence of
challenges, there is no progress. Is South America cursed by its natural resources? Does China’s
rapid penetration of the region renew the region’s comparative advantage in natural resources?
01 fév 2010
Innovation, Productivity and Economic Development in Latin America and the Caribbean
GDP per capita in Latin America has been falling behind high-income countries and other
benchmarks for decades and the region’s mediocre growth performance is one of the main
reasons why poverty reduction, and living standards more generally, in the region is well below
that observed in peer...
03 jan 2010
Why Do so many Women End up in Bad Jobs?
There is an increasing concern in the development community about the increase in the
‘feminisation of bad jobs’ of many developing countries. Indeed, recent analysis shows a
growing proportion of women are in jobs with poor working conditions and low pay. But what
is driving this phenomenon?...
26 jan 2010
Does Trade Stimulate Innovation?
This paper investigates whether increased import competition leads firms to engage in
incremental innovation reflected in product quality upgrading. The econometric analysis relies
on a rich dataset of Chilean manufacturing firms and their products. Product quality is measured
with unit values...
26 jan 2010
The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries
The shift in global goods production towards Asia is well documented. But global
consumer demand has so far been concentrated in the rich economies of the OECD. Will that also
shift towards Asia as these countries get richer? This paper defines a global middle class as all
those living in...
05 jan 2010
This paper measures and compares fragmentation in aid sectors. Past studies focused on
aggregate country data but a sector analysis provides a better picture of fragmentation. We start
by counting the number of aid projects in the developing world and find that, in 2007, more than
03 jan 2010
Are Sovereign Wealth Funds' Investments Politically Biased?
Global allocation of capital and fluctuations in asset prices are increasingly influenced
by the activities of Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). The Santiago Principles called for higher
transparency, stressing that SWFs should exhibit clearer governance standards and sound
09 oct 2009
Are Workers' Remittances Relevant for Credit Rating Agencies?
Remittance flows are an important source of financing for developing countries. In
addition to the microeconomic impact at the household level, remittances have grown into an
important pillar of macroeconomic stability, reducing volatility of external flows, lessening the
probability of current...
14 août 2009
Revisiting Political Budget Cycles in Latin America
In this paper we test the impact of elections on fiscal policy in Latin American economies
in comparison to OECD countries over the period 1990-2006. We find that in Latin American
countries, the average primary balance declines by an amount close to 0.7 per cent of GDP
during an election year,...
30 jui 2009
Coherence of Development Policies
This study provides a general analysis of economic relations between Spain, as a donor of
official development assistance (ODA), and Ecuador, as a partner and recipient of development
aid. It seeks to assess the potential (in)coherence between Spain’s foreign economic activities and
15 jui 2009
Herding in Aid Allocation
Aid ineffectiveness, fragmentation, and volatility have already been highlighted by
scholars and OECD studies. Far fewer studies have been devoted to another problem of capital
flows: herding behaviour. Building upon a methodology applied to financial markets, where
herding is a common feature,...
30 juin 2009
Are all Migrants Really Worse off in Urban Labour Markets?
The rapid and massive increase in rural-to-urban worker flows to the coast of China has drawn recent attention to the welfare of migrants working in urban regions, particularly to their working conditions and pay; serious concern is raised regarding pay discrimination against rural migrants....
30 mars 2009
Taking Stock of the Credit Crunch
This paper examines how the different forms of development finance for low-income
countries are likely to be affected by the global financial crisis, principally through reductions in
remittances, aid flows and FDI. It argues that the channels of transmission of the crisis for
11 mars 2009
Extracting the Maximum from the EITI
For many countries rich in oil, gas and minerals, development remains an elusive goal.
The rich get richer, the poor stay poor, inequality rises, economies stagnate, corruption flourishes
and conflict deepens. The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) has helped to
01 déc 2008
Development Aid and Portfolio Funds
This paper presents stylised facts about development aid and capital flows to developing countries. It compares their volumes and volatilities and finds that foreign aid is not the major source of finance for these countries any more, though not for all regions. The expansion of private flows...
01 nov 2008
Who Saw Sovereign Debt Crises Coming?
This paper studies sovereign debt crises during the period 1993-2006 through the prism of the primary sovereign bond market. Two conclusions emerge. First, investment banks price sovereign default risk well before crises occur and before investors detect default risk. Between three and one...
01 nov 2008
Aid Volatility and Macro Risks in Low-Income Countries
The report argues that aid volatility is an important source of volatility for the poorest countries. Following a method already applied by the Agence Française de Développement, the report argues that loans to LICs should incorporate a floating grace period, which the country could draw upon...
01 oct 2008
Wall Street and Elections in Latin American Emerging Economies
Political cycles represent a core issue for capital markets in developing and emerging countries. This paper analyses the intricate links between financial markets and emerging democracies and highlights changes in the ways analysts and investors react to political cycles in emerging...
01 jui 2008
Report on Informal Employment in Romania
Informal employment is one of the key features of the Romanian labour market and the main concerns of the Romanian government. Informal employment is not new in Romania. This study attempts to shed light on the issue of informal work in Romania.
01 août 2008
The Macro Management of Commodity Booms
Strong growth in China and India has led to improvements in raw-material exporting
countries' terms of trade and attracted complementary finance. The long-term challenge for these
countries, where institutions are often fragile, is to avoid the so-called "resource curse". This
paper aims to...
03 avr 2008
Lending to the Poorest Countries
One of the particular features of poor countries’ economies is their volatility, due mostly
to their dependence on commodities. The paper shows that this volatility is a prime factor
behind the debt crises of the poorest countries. It advocates the adoption by donors of a new
22 fév 2008
Prudent versus Imprudent Lending to Africa
Over recent years, a number of emerging creditors have increased their aid and lending to
Africa’s Low-Income Countries (LICs). This has fed worries that new official lenders may be
undoing years of international efforts to rein in over-indebtedness in Africa, to reduce the