OECD Environment Working Papers

ISSN :
1997-0900 (online)
DOI :
10.1787/19970900
Hide / Show Abstract
This series is designed to make available to a wider readership selected studies on environmental issues prepared for use within the OECD. Authorship is usually collective, but principal authors are named. The papers are generally available only in their original language English or French with a summary in the other if available.
 

Ranking Port Cities with High Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Extremes

Exposure Estimates You or your institution have access to this content

Click to Access: 
Author(s):
R. J. Nicholls1, S. Hanson1, Celine Herweijer2, Nicola Patmore2, Stéphane Hallegatte3, Jan Corfee-Morlot4, Jean Chateau4, Robert Muir-Wood2
Author Affiliations
  • 1: University of Southampton, United Kingdom

  • 2: Risk Managment Solutions Limited, United Kingdom

  • 3: Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement, France

  • 4: OECD, France

Publication Date
19 Nov 2008
Bibliographic information
No.:
1
Pages
63
DOI
10.1787/011766488208

Hide / Show Abstract

This global screening study makes a first estimate of the exposure of the world's large port cities to coastal flooding due to storm surge and damage due to high winds. This assessment also investigates how climate change is likely to impact each port city's exposure to coastal flooding by the 2070s, alongside subsidence and population growth and urbanisation. The study provides a much more comprehensive analysis than earlier assessments, focusing on the 136 port cities around the world that have more than one million inhabitants in 2005. The analysis demonstrates that a large number of people are already exposed to coastal flooding in large port cities. Across all cities, about 40 million people (0.6% of the global population or roughly 1 in 10 of the total port city population in the cities considered here) are exposed to a 1 in 100 year coastal flood event. For present-day conditions (2005), the top ten cities in terms of exposed population are estimated to be Mumbai, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Miami, Ho Chi Minh City, Kolkata, Greater New York, Osaka-Kobe, Alexandria and New Orleans; almost equally split between developed and developing countries. When assets are considered, the current distribution becomes more heavily weighted towards developed countries, as the wealth of the cities becomes important. The top 10 cities in terms of assets exposed are Miami, Greater New York, New Orleans, Osaka-Kobe, Tokyo, Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Nagoya, Tampa-St Petersburg and Virginia Beach. These cities contain 60% of the total exposure, but are from only three (wealthy) countries: USA, Japan and the Netherlands. The total value of assets exposed in 2005 is across all cities considered here is estimated to be US$3,000 billion; corresponding to around 5% of global GDP in 2005 (both measured in international USD)...
Keywords:
environment & development, sustainable development, flood management, climate change, global warming, coastal zones, natural disasters, public policy
JEL Classification:
  • Q01: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / General / Sustainable Development
  • Q54: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Environmental Economics / Climate; Natural Disasters; Global Warming
  • Q56: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Environmental Economics / Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
  • Q58: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Environmental Economics / Government Policy