This is the 18th edition of the Agricultural Outlook and the eighth prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations, and input from collaborating member countries. The report provides world market trends for biofuels, cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meats, fish and dairy products over the 2012-2021 period and contains an evaluation of recent developments, and key issues and uncertainties in those commodity markets. A jointly-developed modelling system, based on the OECD’s AGLINK and on the FAO’s COSIMO models, facilitates consistency in the projections. This edition includes a special feature on the challenge of increasing agricultural productivity growth in a sustainable manner.
- 11 July 2012
Overview of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012
The Agricultural Outlook is produced collaboratively by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations and input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of medium-run projections of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets. The projections of the Agricultural Outlook constitute a plausible scenario of what may happen under a certain set of assumptions, such as normal weather conditions, a specific macroeconomic environment over the coming ten years, population trends, as well as current agricultural and trade policy settings of countries around the world. The projections cover production, consumption, stocks, trade and prices for the different agricultural products for the period 2012 to 2021. The evolution of markets over the outlook period is typically described using the annual growth rate or percentage changes for the final year of 2021 relative to a three-year base period of 2009-11. Given the uncertainties which envelope agricultural markets, the final section of the Overview discusses important assumptions affecting the future evolution of agricultural markets and the sensitivity of the baseline projection to these conditioning factors. One aspect of uncertainties concerning future agricultural supplies is the role to be played by agricultural productivity growth. This is addressed comprehensively in the special feature on achieving sustainable agricultural productivity growth in the second chapter of this report.