OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

Frequency :
Annual
ISSN :
1999-1142 (online)
ISSN :
1563-0447 (print)
DOI :
10.1787/19991142
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OECD’s annual statistics and projections for major agricultural commodities. It analyses how global and domestic forces are shaping agricultural markets over the next decade and highlights some of the risks and uncertainties that may influence the agricultural outlook.  After presenting a broad overview of the situation and setting out the assumptions used, the report presents detailed projections for production, consumption, trade, stocks, and prices for OECD countries as well as selected non-member countries. Commodities covered include cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meat, and dairy.  Since 2005, it has been published as the OECD/FAO Agricultural Outlook.

Also available in: French, Spanish
 
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014

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Author(s):
OECD, FAO
Publication Date :
11 July 2014
Pages :
200
ISBN :
9789264211742 (PDF) ; 9789264210899 (print)
DOI :
10.1787/agr_outlook-2014-en

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This twentieth edition of the Agricultural Outlook, and the tenth prepared jointly with the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), provides market projections to 2023 for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish across 41 countries and 12 regions: OECD member countries (European Union as a region), key non-OECD agricultural producers (such as India, China, Brazil, Russian Federation and Argentina) and groups of smaller non-OECD economies in a more aggregated form. This edition includes a special focus on India.

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    Foreword and Acknowledgements

    The Agricultural Outlook, 2014-2023, is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations and input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets. The special feature on India has been prepared in collaboration with analysts associated with the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, the Ministry of Agriculture of the Government of India and the FAO Representation in India. However, OECD and FAO are responsible for the information and projections contained in this document, and the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Indian institutions.

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    Acronyms and abbreviations
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    Executive summary

    The international prices of major crops have dropped significantly from their historical highs, largely in response to bumper crops in 2013/14. In contrast, meat and dairy product prices are at historically high levels, primarily because their supply fell short of expectations in 2013. World ethanol and biodiesel prices continued their declines from the historical peak levels they had reached in 2011 in a context of ample supply for both.

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    Overview of the OECD-FAO Outlook 2014-2023

    The Agricultural Outlook is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It combines the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations with inputs from collaborating member countries and international organisations to provide an annual assessment of medium-term projections of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets. The projections cover production, consumption, stocks, trade and prices for 25 products for the period 2014 to 2023. These projections constitute a plausible scenario of how global agriculture would develop under a certain set of assumptions about its main drivers, productivity, macroeconomic and population trends as well as agricultural and trade policy settings of countries around the world. Given the uncertainties which surround agricultural markets, the final section of the Overview discusses important assumptions affecting the future evolution of agricultural markets and the sensitivity of the baseline projections to selected conditioning factors.

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    Feeding India: Prospects and challenges in the next decade

    This chapter reviews the prospects and challenges facing India’s agriculture and fish sectors in the next decade. It briefly reviews sector performance, outlines the current context for markets, provides detailed quantitative medium-term projections for the ten-year period 2014-23, and assesses key risks and uncertainties. India’s main challenges in promoting sector growth and reducing its large number of food insecure people are discussed in the context of its various policies to address them, including minimum support prices, trade policy, input subsidies and its new National Food Security Act (NFSA). The chapter outlines a relatively positive scenario in which recent trends of higher production and consumption continue, offering India considerable potential to reduce the number of food insecure people over the next decade. The key risks to this scenario include India’s macro performance, its ability to effectively implement NFSA and the sustainability of productivity growth.

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    Biofuels

    This chapter describes the market situation and the latest set of quantitative medium-term projections for global and national biofuel markets for the ten-year period, 2014-23. It covers the developments expected in world and national ethanol and biodiesel prices, production, use, trade and stocks. The quantitative projections are developed with the aid of the partial equilibrium Aglink-Cosimo model of world agriculture. The chapter also includes three boxes that explain the uncertainties around the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) decision concerning the levels of biofuels mandates, the influence of petrol price controls on hydrous ethanol prices in Brazil, and, sub-national policies supporting biofuels. The chapter concludes with a discussion of some main issues and uncertainties that may have an impact on the medium-term outlook for biofuels. These include biofuel policies, and specific market developments influencing production, consumption and trade in biofuels.

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    Cereals

    This chapter describes the market situation and the latest set of quantitative medium-term projections for world and national cereal markets for the ten-year period, 2014-23. It covers the developments expected in national and global wheat, coarse grains and rice prices, production, use (human consumption, industrial and feed use), trade (imports and exports) and stocks in the medium-term. The quantitative projections are developed with the aid of the partial equilibrium Aglink-Cosimo model of world agriculture. The chapter also includes four boxes that explain the importance of public stockholding for food security, the structural changes in world feed markets, the campaign to prevent bread waste in Turkey and the contribution of agricultural investments to stabilising international rice price volatility under climate change. The chapter concludes with a discussion of some main issues and uncertainties that may have an impact on the medium-term outlook for cereals. These include weather events, policies, and specific market events influencing cereal production, consumption and trade.

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    Oilseeds and oilseed products

    This chapter describes the market situation and the latest set of quantitative medium-term projections for global and national oilseed, protein meal and vegetable oil markets for the ten-year period, 2014-23. The discussion covers the developments expected in world and national prices, production, use (human consumption, industrial and feed use), trade (imports and exports) and stocks. The quantitative projections are developed with the aid of the partial equilibrium Aglink-Cosimo model of world agriculture. The chapter also includes a box that explains policy options for biofuel in Indonesia. It concludes with a discussion of main issues and uncertainties concerning the medium-term outlook for oilseeds. These include biodiesel policies, and specific market developments influencing production, consumption and trade of oilseeds and oilseed products.

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    Sugar

    This chapter describes the market situation and the latest set of quantitative medium-term projections for global and national sugar markets for the ten crop-year period, 2014-23. It covers the developments expected in world and national sugar prices, production, use, trade (imports and exports) and stocks (including stock-to-use). The quantitative projections are developed using the partial equilibrium Aglink-Cosimo model of world agriculture. The chapter also includes two boxes that explain market impacts of EU sweetener production quotas and the challenges that the US sugar programme faces in removing sugar surpluses. The chapter concludes with a discussion of some main issues and uncertainties that may have an impact on the medium-term outlook for sugar. These include sugar policies, and specific market developments influencing production, consumption and trade in sugar.

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    Meat

    This chapter describes the market situation and the latest set of quantitative medium-term projections for global and national meat markets for the ten-year period, 2014-23. It covers the developments expected in world and national meat production, use, trade and stocks. The quantitative projections are developed with the aid of the partial equilibrium Aglink-Cosimo model of world agriculture. The chapter also includes three boxes that describe the income-meat demand relationship across countries, the driving factors of India’s rise as the top bovine meat exporter and the importance of closing efficiency gaps in meat production. The chapter concludes with a discussion of some main issues and uncertainties that may have an impact on the medium-term outlook for meat. These include the uncertainties surrounding herd rebuilding in North America, animal disease outbreaks and the increasing trend in China to import meat.

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    Fish and seafood

    This chapter illustrates the market situation and the latest set of quantitative medium-term projections for the fish sector for 2014-23. The analysis of the market prospects for fish covers the developments expected in its prices, production, use (human consumption, fishmeal and fish oil) and trade (imports and exports). The quantitative projections are developed with the aid of the dynamic policy specific partial equilibrium fish model. At present, it is a stand-alone model using the same macroeconomic assumptions and the same feed and food prices employed or generated by the agricultural market model Aglink-Cosimo. The chapter also includes a box that discusses the recycling of fish residue in the fishmeal and oil market. The chapter concludes with a discussion of some main issues and uncertainties which might affect the medium-term outlook for fish. Major emphasis is given to fisheries policies, and specific constraints influencing capture and aquaculture production.

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    Dairy

    This chapter describes the market situation and the latest set of quantitative medium-term projections for global and national dairy markets for the ten-year period, 2014-23. The discussion of the medium-term market prospects for dairy covers the developments expected in national milk production, and world and national dairy product prices, production, food consumption and trade (imports and exports). The quantitative projections are developed with the aid of the partial equilibrium Aglink-Cosimo model of world agriculture. Included in the chapter are two boxes on i) challenges and opportunities facing China’s dairy sector and ii) milk and dairy products in human nutrition. The chapter concludes with a discussion of some main issues and uncertainties affecting the medium-term outlook for dairy. These include dairy policies, and specific market development influencing production, consumption and trade in dairy.

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    Cotton

    This chapter summarises the current situation and medium-term projections for world cotton markets during 2014-23. Expected developments in national and global cotton prices, production, use, trade (imports and exports) and stocks, and the background to these developments, are discussed. The underlying quantitative projections are developed with the aid of the partial equilibrium Aglink-Cosimo model of world agriculture. A separate section examines China’s cotton policies, which are a significant source of variation and uncertainty during the outlook period. Other sources of uncertainty addressed include shifts in consumer demand and trends in both agricultural and industrial technology.

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    Glossary of terms

    This is an influenza virus that had never been identified as a cause of infections in people before the current H1N1 pandemic. Genetic analyses of this virus have shown that it originated from animal influenza viruses and is unrelated to the human seasonal H1N1 viruses that have been in general circulation among people since 1977.

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    Methodology

    This section provides information on the methodological aspects of the generation of the present Agricultural Outlook. It discusses the main aspects in the following order: First, a general description of the agricultural baseline projections and the Outlook report is given. Second, the compilation of a consistent set of the assumptions on macroeconomic projections is discussed in more detail. A third part presents how production costs are taken into account in the model’s supply equations. The fourth part presents the new feed demand system that has been incorporated in the 2014 version of the model. Then the fifth part presents the methodology developed for the stochastic analysis conducted with the Aglink-Cosimo model.

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