OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026
Over the ten-year Outlook period, agricultural markets are projected to remain weak, with growth in China weakening and biofuel policies having less impact on markets than in the past. Future growth in crop production will be attained mostly by increasing yields, and growth in meat and dairy production from both higher animal stocks and improved yields. Agricultural trade is expected to grow more slowly, but remain less sensitive to weak economic conditions than other sectors. These demand, supply and trade pressures are all evident in Southeast Asia, where this report identifies scope to improve agricultural productivity sustainably. Real prices are expected to remain flat or decline for most commodities.
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 - © OECD 2017
3.A1.6 | World dairy projections: Powders and casein | ||||||||||||
3.A1.6 | World dairy projections: Powders and casein | ||||||||||||
Calendar year | |||||||||||||
| | | Average 2014-16est | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| SKIM MILK POWDER | ||||||||||||
| World | ||||||||||||
| Production | kt pw | 4 474 | 4 445 | 4 396 | 4 586 | 4 796 | 4 917 | 5 016 | 5 134 | 5 240 | 5 343 | 5 452 |
| Consumption | kt pw | 4 316 | 4 431 | 4 596 | 4 711 | 4 804 | 4 911 | 5 009 | 5 130 | 5 239 | 5 344 | 5 456 |
| Stock changes | kt pw | 16 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | -1 | -3 | -3 | -4 | -6 |
| Price 1 | USD/t | 2 637 | 2 522 | 2 554 | 2 739 | 2 859 | 2 977 | 3 100 | 3 217 | 3 307 | 3 424 | 3 530 |
| Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | kt pw | 3 878 | 3 840 | 3 787 | 3 959 | 4 152 | 4 258 | 4 341 | 4 443 | 4 536 | 4 625 | 4 718 |
| Consumption | kt pw | 2 019 | 2 066 | 2 158 | 2 222 | 2 258 | 2 305 | 2 345 | 2 398 | 2 443 | 2 486 | 2 532 |
| Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | kt pw | 595 | 604 | 608 | 627 | 644 | 659 | 674 | 691 | 704 | 718 | 734 |
| Consumption | kt pw | 2 297 | 2 365 | 2 438 | 2 490 | 2 546 | 2 606 | 2 664 | 2 732 | 2 795 | 2 858 | 2 924 |
| OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| Production | kt pw | 3 646 | 3 621 | 3 575 | 3 745 | 3 937 | 4 043 | 4 125 | 4 227 | 4 320 | 4 408 | 4 500 |
| Consumption | kt pw | 2 047 | 2 127 | 2 222 | 2 290 | 2 330 | 2 381 | 2 425 | 2 482 | 2 531 | 2 578 | 2 632 |
| Stock changes | kt pw | 16 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | -1 | -3 | -3 | -4 | -6 |
| WHOLE MILK POWDER | ||||||||||||
| World | ||||||||||||
| Production | kt pw | 5 166 | 5 404 | 5 497 | 5 596 | 5 695 | 5 816 | 5 939 | 6 050 | 6 162 | 6 265 | 6 372 |
| Consumption | kt pw | 5 238 | 5 394 | 5 495 | 5 595 | 5 694 | 5 816 | 5 939 | 6 050 | 6 163 | 6 266 | 6 372 |
| Stock changes | kt pw | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Price 3 | USD/t | 2 889 | 3 120 | 3 066 | 3 207 | 3 302 | 3 417 | 3 513 | 3 613 | 3 696 | 3 803 | 3 883 |
| Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | kt pw | 2 387 | 2 371 | 2 398 | 2 431 | 2 469 | 2 522 | 2 568 | 2 615 | 2 665 | 2 716 | 2 759 |
| Consumption | kt pw | 615 | 608 | 591 | 604 | 618 | 632 | 646 | 660 | 674 | 686 | 694 |
| Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| Production | kt pw | 2 779 | 3 033 | 3 099 | 3 165 | 3 226 | 3 295 | 3 371 | 3 434 | 3 497 | 3 549 | 3 612 |
| Consumption | kt pw | 4 623 | 4 786 | 4 904 | 4 990 | 5 076 | 5 184 | 5 293 | 5 390 | 5 489 | 5 579 | 5 677 |
| OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| Production | kt pw | 2 566 | 2 554 | 2 585 | 2 620 | 2 660 | 2 714 | 2 762 | 2 811 | 2 863 | 2 918 | 2 964 |
| Consumption | kt pw | 784 | 783 | 771 | 789 | 808 | 827 | 847 | 866 | 885 | 904 | 919 |
| Stock changes | kt pw | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| WHEY POWDER | ||||||||||||
| Wholesale price, United States 4 | USD/t | 981 | 948 | 978 | 1 031 | 1 075 | 1 127 | 1 157 | 1 205 | 1 234 | 1 279 | 1 319 |
| CASEIN | ||||||||||||
| Price 5 | USD/t | 7 404 | 7 138 | 7 268 | 7 669 | 7 990 | 8 283 | 8 588 | 8 873 | 9 096 | 9 390 | 9 649 |
Note: Calendar year: Year ending 30 June for Australia and 31 May for New Zealand in OECD aggregate. Average 2014-16est: Data for 2016 are estimated. | |||||||||||||
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer | |||||||||||||
FOB export price, non-fat dry milk, 1.25% butterfat, Oceania. | |||||||||||||
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries. | |||||||||||||
FOB export price, WMP 26% butterfat, Oceania. | |||||||||||||
FOB export price, sweet whey non-hygroscopic, Western Europe. | |||||||||||||
Export price, New Zealand. | |||||||||||||
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en |