OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

1999-1142 (online)
1563-0447 (print)
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The thirteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish. The 2017 report contains a special feature on the prospects for, and challenges facing, Southeast Asia.

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025

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04 July 2016
9789264253230 (PDF) ; 9789264259508 (EPUB) ;9789264253223(print)

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The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025 provides an assessment of prospects for the coming decade of the national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets across 41 countries and 12 regions, including OECD countries (European Union as a region) and other key agricultural producers, such as India, China, Brazil, the Russian Federation and Argentina among others. This year's special feature focuses on the prospects and challenges of the agricultural sector in Sub-Saharan Africa. This edition marks the twelfth year of partnership between the two organisations.

Also available in French, Spanish, Chinese
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  • Foreword

    The food and agriculture systems fulfil a wide range of functions vital to the well-being of humanity. Being at the heart of global food security, they are expected to provide the world with adequate and reliable supplies of safe, healthy and nutritious food. They are also crucial for the livelihoods of billions of people, including many of the world’s poorest, providing direct employment and income and contributing to the broader rural and overall economic development. To continue to fulfil these key roles, agricultural productivity has to increase in a sustainable manner.

  • Acronyms and abbreviations
  • Executive summary

    The Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025 is a collaborative effort of OECD and FAO. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations and input from collaborating member countries to provide an assessment of medium-term prospects of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets. The Outlook provides supply, demand, trade and price estimates of major agricultural commodities for 41 countries and 12 geographical regions. The special theme chapter of this year’s edition focusses on the prospects and challenges of the agricultural sector in Sub-Saharan Africa.

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    • Overview of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025

      This chapter provides an overview of the latest set of quantitative medium-term projections for global and national agricultural markets. The projections cover production, consumption, stocks, trade and prices for 25 agricultural products for the period 2016 to 2025. The chapter starts with a description of the state of agricultural markets in 2015 and explains the main macroeconomic and policy assumptions underlying the projections. In the next sections, consumption and production trends are examined, with a focus on regional developments. The chapter also reviews trade patterns showing the relative concentration of exports and dispersion of imports across countries for different commodities. The chapter concludes with global agricultural price projections, which include a stochastic analysis to illustrate how uncertainty about the macroeconomic environment and yield levels might affect price projections. Growing demand for agricultural commodities is projected to be matched by efficiency gains in production which will keep real agricultural prices relatively flat.

    • Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa: Prospects and challenges for the next decade

      This chapter reviews the prospects and challenges facing the agricultural sector in Sub-Saharan Africa over the next decade. It reviews sector performance, outlines the current market context, provides detailed quantitative medium term projections for the ten-year period 2016-25, and assesses key risks and uncertainties. The outlook for agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa is situated in the context of several mega-trends that shape the sector’s development. These include rapid population growth, urbanisation and rural diversification, an associated structural transformation from farm to non-farm employment, a growing middle class, and increasing interest (both domestically and globally) in the continent’s farmland. The Outlook for agriculture is broadly positive, but could be further enhanced by consistent policies and strategic investments, in particular in rural infrastructure.

    • Commodity snapshots

      This chapter describes the market situation and highlights of the latest set of quantitative medium-term projections for world and national agricultural markets, for the ten-year period 2016-25. It provides information on prices, production, consumption, trade and main uncertainties for cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meat, dairy products, fish, biofuels and cotton. The quantitative projections are developed with the aid of the partial equilibrium Aglink-Cosimo model of world agriculture. The printed version of this chapter only includes the projection highlights for each commodity whereas further details and an extensive statistical annex are available on line.

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  • Glossary of terms
  • Methodology

    This section provides information on the methodological aspects of the generation of the present Agricultural Outlook. It discusses the main aspects in the following order: First, a general description of the agricultural baseline projections and the Outlook report is given. Second, the compilation of a consistent set of the assumptions on macroeconomic projections is discussed in more detail. The third part provides reference to the underlying Aglink-Cosimo model. The final part presents the methodology developed for the stochastic analysis conducted with the Aglink- Cosimo model.

  • Statistical Annex
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