OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025 provides an assessment of prospects for the coming decade of the national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets across 41 countries and 12 regions, including OECD countries (European Union as a region) and other key agricultural producers, such as India, China, Brazil, the Russian Federation and Argentina among others. This year's special feature focuses on the prospects and challenges of the agricultural sector in Sub-Saharan Africa. This edition marks the twelfth year of partnership between the two organisations.
From Chapter:
Glossary of terms
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025 - © OECD 2016
| 3.A1.2 | World oilseed projections | ||||||||||||
| 3.A1.2 | World oilseed projections | ||||||||||||
| Marketing year | |||||||||||||
| | | | Average 2013-15est | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| | SOYBEAN | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 298.7 | 318.7 | 324.5 | 334.7 | 342.9 | 351.3 | 358.9 | 367.9 | 377.6 | 384.4 | 393.9 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 298.8 | 320.9 | 326.7 | 334.9 | 343.2 | 351.9 | 359.0 | 367.2 | 376.6 | 384.0 | 393.9 |
| | Crush | Mt | 268.1 | 289.0 | 294.5 | 302.2 | 310.3 | 318.8 | 325.5 | 333.4 | 342.3 | 349.5 | 359.0 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 34.6 | 36.2 | 33.9 | 33.7 | 33.5 | 32.9 | 32.7 | 33.4 | 34.4 | 34.8 | 34.8 |
| | Price 1 | USD/t | 433.3 | 347.5 | 370.7 | 373.5 | 381.1 | 390.5 | 414.2 | 423.7 | 416.1 | 430.0 | 427.3 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 117.0 | 121.5 | 123.7 | 126.0 | 127.2 | 128.4 | 129.9 | 131.8 | 133.5 | 134.4 | 135.9 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 83.3 | 87.2 | 87.7 | 88.7 | 89.2 | 90.1 | 90.7 | 91.0 | 92.1 | 92.3 | 93.4 |
| | Crush | Mt | 75.3 | 79.3 | 79.7 | 80.5 | 81.4 | 82.3 | 82.9 | 83.2 | 84.2 | 84.6 | 85.7 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 10.1 | 14.4 | 13.0 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 12.1 | 12.4 | 12.2 | 12.5 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 181.7 | 197.2 | 200.8 | 208.8 | 215.7 | 222.9 | 229.0 | 236.1 | 244.0 | 250.0 | 258.0 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 215.5 | 233.7 | 239.0 | 246.2 | 254.0 | 261.8 | 268.3 | 276.2 | 284.5 | 291.7 | 300.5 |
| | Crush | Mt | 192.8 | 209.7 | 214.8 | 221.6 | 229.0 | 236.5 | 242.6 | 250.2 | 258.1 | 264.9 | 273.3 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 24.5 | 21.8 | 20.9 | 21.2 | 21.2 | 20.7 | 20.9 | 21.3 | 22.0 | 22.6 | 22.4 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 110.3 | 114.0 | 115.5 | 117.5 | 118.4 | 119.3 | 120.5 | 122.0 | 123.4 | 124.0 | 125.1 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 83.5 | 87.5 | 87.9 | 88.9 | 89.5 | 90.3 | 91.0 | 91.3 | 92.4 | 92.7 | 93.9 |
| | Crush | Mt | 75.4 | 79.5 | 79.8 | 80.6 | 81.5 | 82.5 | 83.1 | 83.4 | 84.5 | 84.8 | 86.0 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 9.9 | 14.3 | 12.9 | 12.3 | 12.1 | 12.0 | 11.7 | 12.0 | 12.3 | 12.1 | 12.3 |
| | OTHER OILSEEDS | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 144.5 | 143.6 | 145.9 | 148.0 | 149.8 | 151.7 | 153.6 | 155.5 | 157.1 | 158.9 | 160.7 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 143.9 | 143.4 | 145.1 | 147.4 | 149.5 | 151.5 | 153.5 | 155.7 | 157.3 | 159.1 | 160.7 |
| | Crush | Mt | 119.6 | 118.8 | 120.5 | 122.6 | 124.7 | 126.6 | 128.6 | 130.7 | 132.4 | 134.2 | 135.8 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 9.3 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 9.4 |
| | Price 3 | USD/t | 444.7 | 400.5 | 409.0 | 391.6 | 391.0 | 401.9 | 412.5 | 407.2 | 411.8 | 422.3 | 433.1 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 83.8 | 82.7 | 84.3 | 85.4 | 86.5 | 87.5 | 88.6 | 89.7 | 90.6 | 91.8 | 92.8 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 74.8 | 75.3 | 76.3 | 77.5 | 78.5 | 79.5 | 80.5 | 81.5 | 82.3 | 83.3 | 84.0 |
| | Crush | Mt | 67.2 | 67.4 | 68.4 | 69.4 | 70.4 | 71.3 | 72.3 | 73.3 | 74.0 | 74.9 | 75.7 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 7.0 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 7.8 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 60.7 | 60.9 | 61.6 | 62.6 | 63.3 | 64.2 | 64.9 | 65.8 | 66.5 | 67.1 | 67.9 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 69.1 | 68.1 | 68.8 | 70.0 | 71.0 | 72.0 | 73.0 | 74.2 | 75.0 | 75.9 | 76.7 |
| | Crush | Mt | 52.4 | 51.4 | 52.1 | 53.2 | 54.3 | 55.3 | 56.3 | 57.4 | 58.4 | 59.3 | 60.1 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 2.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 58.2 | 56.0 | 57.0 | 57.4 | 57.9 | 58.3 | 58.6 | 59.1 | 59.3 | 59.8 | 60.2 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 54.5 | 53.9 | 54.4 | 54.9 | 55.3 | 55.7 | 56.0 | 56.4 | 56.6 | 56.9 | 57.1 |
| | Crush | Mt | 48.6 | 47.7 | 48.2 | 48.6 | 49.0 | 49.3 | 49.7 | 50.0 | 50.2 | 50.5 | 50.7 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 5.8 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 6.0 |
| | PROTEIN MEALS | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 301.1 | 317.0 | 322.7 | 330.6 | 338.6 | 346.8 | 353.6 | 361.5 | 369.9 | 377.0 | 385.7 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 298.0 | 316.9 | 322.9 | 330.6 | 338.5 | 346.5 | 353.6 | 361.2 | 369.6 | 376.8 | 385.6 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 16.0 | 16.1 | 15.9 | 16.0 | 16.1 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 16.7 | 16.9 | 17.1 | 17.3 |
| | Price 4 | USD/t | 391.0 | 289.7 | 296.9 | 302.8 | 312.3 | 318.0 | 340.8 | 350.0 | 352.1 | 360.8 | 368.5 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 99.4 | 102.0 | 103.0 | 104.5 | 105.7 | 106.9 | 107.9 | 108.6 | 109.7 | 110.4 | 111.6 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 114.6 | 118.9 | 119.4 | 120.9 | 122.5 | 123.7 | 124.3 | 125.2 | 126.4 | 127.0 | 128.3 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 201.8 | 215.0 | 219.7 | 226.1 | 232.9 | 239.9 | 245.8 | 252.9 | 260.2 | 266.6 | 274.2 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 183.4 | 198.0 | 203.4 | 209.7 | 216.1 | 222.8 | 229.3 | 236.0 | 243.2 | 249.9 | 257.2 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 13.8 | 14.1 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 14.0 | 14.2 | 14.2 | 14.4 | 14.7 | 14.8 | 14.9 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 92.5 | 94.8 | 95.5 | 96.8 | 97.8 | 98.7 | 99.5 | 100.0 | 101.0 | 101.4 | 102.4 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 119.2 | 123.2 | 123.8 | 125.3 | 126.7 | 127.9 | 128.5 | 129.5 | 130.9 | 131.6 | 133.2 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| | VEGETABLE OILS | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 174.1 | 180.5 | 184.2 | 188.5 | 192.7 | 197.1 | 201.2 | 205.6 | 210.1 | 214.3 | 218.9 |
| | of which palm oil | Mt | 61.1 | 63.3 | 65.1 | 66.8 | 68.4 | 70.0 | 71.7 | 73.4 | 75.1 | 76.8 | 78.6 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 173.4 | 181.0 | 184.1 | 187.8 | 192.1 | 196.7 | 200.7 | 204.9 | 209.4 | 213.8 | 218.3 |
| | Food | Mt | 141.6 | 147.0 | 149.4 | 152.8 | 156.1 | 159.4 | 162.6 | 166.3 | 170.2 | 173.9 | 178.0 |
| | Biofuel | Mt | 22.4 | 23.3 | 23.5 | 23.6 | 24.2 | 25.1 | 25.4 | 25.7 | 25.8 | 26.2 | 26.2 |
| | Exports | Mt | 74.1 | 76.7 | 78.0 | 79.5 | 81.3 | 83.0 | 84.6 | 86.4 | 88.3 | 90.3 | 92.1 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 23.7 | 22.5 | 22.7 | 23.3 | 23.9 | 24.3 | 24.8 | 25.5 | 26.2 | 26.7 | 27.2 |
| | Price 5 | USD/t | 782.2 | 736.5 | 759.8 | 761.9 | 777.2 | 806.0 | 826.6 | 826.5 | 821.1 | 830.3 | 834.3 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 44.0 | 44.8 | 45.2 | 45.8 | 46.4 | 47.0 | 47.5 | 48.0 | 48.6 | 49.1 | 49.7 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 49.1 | 49.1 | 49.1 | 49.2 | 49.5 | 50.1 | 50.2 | 50.3 | 50.3 | 50.4 | 50.2 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.1 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 130.1 | 135.8 | 139.0 | 142.7 | 146.4 | 150.1 | 153.7 | 157.6 | 161.5 | 165.2 | 169.2 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 124.3 | 131.9 | 135.0 | 138.7 | 142.6 | 146.6 | 150.5 | 154.6 | 159.1 | 163.5 | 168.1 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 19.8 | 18.6 | 18.8 | 19.4 | 20.0 | 20.3 | 20.8 | 21.4 | 22.1 | 22.6 | 23.1 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 36.5 | 36.9 | 37.1 | 37.5 | 37.8 | 38.1 | 38.4 | 38.6 | 39.0 | 39.2 | 39.5 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 48.8 | 49.2 | 49.2 | 49.3 | 49.8 | 50.4 | 50.6 | 50.7 | 50.8 | 51.0 | 50.8 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
| Note: Average 2013-15est: Data for 2015 are estimated. | |||||||||||||
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Soybean, U.S., CIF Rotterdam. | |||||||||||||
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries. | |||||||||||||
Rapeseed, Europe, CIF Hamburg. | |||||||||||||
Weighted average protein meal, European port. | |||||||||||||
Weighted average price of oilseed oils and palm oil, European port. | |||||||||||||
| Source: OECD/FAO (2016), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en | |||||||||||||