OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025 provides an assessment of prospects for the coming decade of the national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets across 41 countries and 12 regions, including OECD countries (European Union as a region) and other key agricultural producers, such as India, China, Brazil, the Russian Federation and Argentina among others. This year's special feature focuses on the prospects and challenges of the agricultural sector in Sub-Saharan Africa. This edition marks the twelfth year of partnership between the two organisations.
From Chapter:
Glossary of terms
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025 - © OECD 2016
| 3.A1.1 | World cereal projections | ||||||||||||
| 3.A1.1 | World cereal projections | ||||||||||||
| Marketing year | |||||||||||||
| | | | Average 2013-15est | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| | WHEAT | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 720.3 | 721.7 | 733.2 | 739.8 | 747.3 | 753.9 | 760.1 | 767.7 | 775.6 | 783.6 | 791.3 |
| | Area | Mha | 222.2 | 222.6 | 222.8 | 223.3 | 223.6 | 223.7 | 223.6 | 223.6 | 223.9 | 224.1 | 224.4 |
| | Yield | t/ha | 3.24 | 3.24 | 3.29 | 3.31 | 3.34 | 3.37 | 3.40 | 3.43 | 3.46 | 3.50 | 3.53 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 709.9 | 727.7 | 733.4 | 740.4 | 746.7 | 752.2 | 759.9 | 766.5 | 773.7 | 781.4 | 789.6 |
| | Feed use | Mt | 133.4 | 140.6 | 141.1 | 143.1 | 146.1 | 148.3 | 150.5 | 152.7 | 155.1 | 157.9 | 161.3 |
| | Food use | Mt | 487.7 | 497.2 | 503.5 | 508.6 | 513.4 | 518.1 | 523.3 | 528.2 | 532.8 | 537.9 | 543.8 |
| | Biofuel use | Mt | 8.8 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.3 |
| | Other use | Mt | 80.0 | 80.5 | 79.1 | 78.3 | 76.8 | 75.7 | 76.2 | 76.2 | 76.7 | 76.4 | 75.3 |
| | Exports | Mt | 157.8 | 152.5 | 155.0 | 158.3 | 161.2 | 163.3 | 165.6 | 167.8 | 170.0 | 172.4 | 174.5 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 196.2 | 196.6 | 196.4 | 195.8 | 196.4 | 198.1 | 198.3 | 199.5 | 201.4 | 203.5 | 205.3 |
| | Price 1 | USD/t | 271.0 | 216.5 | 211.7 | 210.8 | 213.1 | 216.6 | 224.0 | 229.0 | 233.2 | 235.5 | 236.9 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 381.5 | 374.0 | 379.9 | 383.2 | 386.7 | 388.9 | 391.1 | 394.0 | 397.2 | 400.5 | 403.3 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 266.9 | 270.6 | 271.5 | 273.4 | 273.0 | 272.9 | 274.2 | 275.0 | 276.5 | 278.1 | 279.5 |
| | Net trade | Mt | 109.1 | 106.3 | 108.4 | 111.2 | 113.5 | 115.0 | 116.6 | 118.3 | 119.8 | 121.5 | 122.8 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 69.5 | 73.8 | 73.8 | 72.4 | 72.6 | 73.6 | 73.9 | 74.6 | 75.6 | 76.5 | 77.5 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 338.8 | 347.7 | 353.3 | 356.5 | 360.6 | 365.0 | 369.1 | 373.7 | 378.4 | 383.1 | 388.0 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 443.0 | 457.1 | 461.9 | 467.0 | 473.7 | 479.3 | 485.7 | 491.5 | 497.2 | 503.3 | 510.1 |
| | Net trade | Mt | -106.9 | -106.3 | -108.4 | -111.2 | -113.5 | -115.0 | -116.6 | -118.3 | -119.8 | -121.5 | -122.8 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 126.7 | 122.9 | 122.6 | 123.3 | 123.8 | 124.5 | 124.4 | 124.8 | 125.8 | 127.0 | 127.7 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 291.8 | 290.9 | 291.3 | 293.6 | 295.9 | 297.1 | 298.6 | 300.6 | 302.8 | 305.0 | 306.6 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 219.2 | 222.9 | 223.9 | 225.4 | 225.0 | 224.9 | 225.8 | 226.4 | 227.8 | 228.9 | 229.8 |
| | Net trade | Mt | 68.7 | 67.9 | 69.7 | 69.7 | 71.0 | 71.4 | 72.5 | 73.5 | 74.3 | 75.3 | 76.0 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 51.9 | 57.0 | 54.7 | 53.2 | 53.2 | 54.0 | 54.3 | 54.9 | 55.7 | 56.5 | 57.3 |
| | MAIZE | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 1 014.3 | 1 006.0 | 1 041.3 | 1 048.5 | 1 059.8 | 1 075.1 | 1 090.0 | 1 103.4 | 1 117.1 | 1 132.3 | 1 146.0 |
| | Area | Mha | 181.1 | 178.9 | 182.7 | 182.3 | 182.4 | 183.0 | 183.5 | 183.8 | 184.1 | 184.6 | 184.8 |
| | Yield | t/ha | 5.60 | 5.62 | 5.70 | 5.75 | 5.81 | 5.88 | 5.94 | 6.00 | 6.07 | 6.13 | 6.20 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 986.7 | 1 024.9 | 1 038.6 | 1 060.1 | 1 062.8 | 1 073.7 | 1 087.2 | 1 102.6 | 1 114.7 | 1 130.6 | 1 143.4 |
| | Feed use | Mt | 555.9 | 583.9 | 599.2 | 614.8 | 616.1 | 622.1 | 635.8 | 649.2 | 660.3 | 671.7 | 682.9 |
| | Food use | Mt | 130.9 | 136.3 | 138.3 | 140.8 | 143.2 | 145.8 | 148.4 | 150.9 | 153.6 | 156.2 | 158.9 |
| | Biofuel use | Mt | 148.0 | 156.9 | 161.4 | 160.9 | 159.6 | 159.4 | 157.1 | 156.3 | 155.2 | 156.6 | 154.4 |
| | Other use | Mt | 102.0 | 101.4 | 93.3 | 96.0 | 95.4 | 97.2 | 96.7 | 96.1 | 95.4 | 95.4 | 95.8 |
| | Exports | Mt | 130.2 | 128.6 | 127.9 | 129.1 | 130.2 | 131.0 | 133.1 | 134.7 | 137.4 | 139.8 | 141.5 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 216.2 | 204.2 | 206.9 | 195.2 | 192.2 | 193.6 | 196.4 | 197.2 | 199.6 | 201.3 | 203.9 |
| | Price 3 | USD/t | 180.6 | 170.2 | 163.0 | 163.0 | 165.9 | 170.0 | 175.9 | 181.2 | 182.2 | 183.9 | 186.7 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 498.0 | 488.6 | 506.4 | 507.9 | 511.3 | 516.1 | 521.3 | 525.5 | 530.2 | 536.0 | 541.5 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 444.2 | 453.9 | 461.7 | 474.2 | 468.6 | 470.8 | 474.5 | 480.6 | 483.2 | 489.2 | 492.2 |
| | Net trade | Mt | 45.0 | 37.6 | 38.9 | 40.4 | 41.3 | 41.3 | 42.7 | 44.3 | 46.3 | 47.6 | 49.2 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 66.3 | 64.0 | 69.9 | 63.1 | 64.5 | 68.6 | 72.7 | 73.4 | 74.1 | 73.3 | 73.4 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 516.3 | 517.4 | 534.9 | 540.5 | 548.5 | 559.0 | 568.8 | 577.8 | 586.9 | 596.3 | 604.5 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 542.5 | 571.1 | 576.9 | 585.9 | 594.2 | 603.0 | 612.7 | 622.0 | 631.6 | 641.4 | 651.2 |
| | Net trade | Mt | -37.9 | -37.6 | -38.9 | -40.4 | -41.3 | -41.3 | -42.7 | -44.3 | -46.3 | -47.6 | -49.2 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 149.9 | 140.2 | 137.0 | 132.1 | 127.7 | 125.0 | 123.7 | 123.8 | 125.5 | 128.0 | 130.6 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 466.2 | 463.1 | 474.9 | 475.6 | 478.4 | 482.6 | 487.2 | 490.8 | 494.8 | 499.9 | 504.8 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 459.7 | 471.9 | 479.2 | 491.8 | 486.0 | 488.0 | 491.8 | 497.8 | 500.4 | 506.4 | 509.2 |
| | Net trade | Mt | -2.7 | -5.3 | -9.2 | -9.2 | -8.9 | -9.7 | -8.8 | -7.7 | -6.2 | -5.5 | -4.4 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 65.6 | 63.7 | 68.6 | 61.6 | 63.0 | 67.2 | 71.4 | 72.0 | 72.7 | 71.7 | 71.7 |
| | OTHER COARSE GRAINS | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 298.9 | 294.1 | 295.2 | 296.9 | 300.3 | 304.2 | 307.8 | 312.0 | 316.1 | 320.0 | 324.2 |
| | Area | Mha | 158.2 | 157.4 | 156.9 | 156.7 | 157.1 | 157.7 | 158.0 | 158.6 | 159.2 | 159.6 | 160.2 |
| | Yield | t/ha | 1.89 | 1.87 | 1.88 | 1.89 | 1.91 | 1.93 | 1.95 | 1.97 | 1.99 | 2.01 | 2.02 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 290.5 | 291.2 | 294.0 | 296.8 | 299.9 | 303.0 | 306.6 | 310.1 | 313.9 | 317.7 | 321.6 |
| | Feed use | Mt | 163.5 | 160.1 | 161.0 | 162.3 | 164.7 | 167.5 | 169.7 | 171.9 | 173.9 | 175.9 | 177.9 |
| | Food use | Mt | 74.5 | 77.4 | 78.4 | 79.8 | 81.2 | 82.7 | 84.1 | 85.7 | 87.2 | 88.8 | 90.5 |
| | Biofuel use | Mt | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| | Other use | Mt | 48.6 | 49.6 | 50.4 | 50.3 | 49.7 | 48.7 | 49.0 | 49.0 | 49.3 | 49.5 | 49.9 |
| | Exports | Mt | 45.5 | 40.2 | 40.4 | 40.7 | 41.4 | 42.6 | 43.6 | 45.1 | 46.6 | 48.1 | 49.8 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 55.3 | 59.0 | 58.4 | 56.7 | 55.2 | 54.5 | 53.7 | 53.7 | 54.1 | 54.6 | 55.3 |
| | Price 4 | USD/t | 212.4 | 156.4 | 153.9 | 157.1 | 161.4 | 166.0 | 175.3 | 181.0 | 184.5 | 188.4 | 190.0 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 185.8 | 177.5 | 177.3 | 176.6 | 177.4 | 178.6 | 179.7 | 181.0 | 182.3 | 183.5 | 184.9 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 150.7 | 151.9 | 152.6 | 152.7 | 152.5 | 152.5 | 152.8 | 152.7 | 152.9 | 153.0 | 153.1 |
| | Net trade | Mt | 31.3 | 24.8 | 24.9 | 25.2 | 26.2 | 27.1 | 27.8 | 28.7 | 29.6 | 30.5 | 31.7 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 35.4 | 39.4 | 39.2 | 37.9 | 36.6 | 35.6 | 34.8 | 34.3 | 34.2 | 34.2 | 34.3 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 113.1 | 116.6 | 118.0 | 120.3 | 122.8 | 125.5 | 128.1 | 131.0 | 133.8 | 136.5 | 139.4 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 139.8 | 139.3 | 141.5 | 144.0 | 147.3 | 150.6 | 153.9 | 157.4 | 161.0 | 164.7 | 168.6 |
| | Net trade | Mt | -26.7 | -23.0 | -23.1 | -23.3 | -24.4 | -25.3 | -25.9 | -26.8 | -27.7 | -28.7 | -29.8 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 19.9 | 19.6 | 19.2 | 18.8 | 18.6 | 18.8 | 19.0 | 19.4 | 20.0 | 20.4 | 21.0 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 155.4 | 148.4 | 147.9 | 147.3 | 148.0 | 149.1 | 150.0 | 151.2 | 152.4 | 153.4 | 154.6 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 130.6 | 131.1 | 131.7 | 131.9 | 131.8 | 131.8 | 132.1 | 132.1 | 132.2 | 132.2 | 132.1 |
| | Net trade | Mt | 21.5 | 17.0 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 17.4 | 18.2 | 18.7 | 19.6 | 20.4 | 21.3 | 22.4 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 28.9 | 32.8 | 32.4 | 31.2 | 30.1 | 29.2 | 28.4 | 28.0 | 27.7 | 27.7 | 27.7 |
| | RICE | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 493.4 | 503.6 | 510.5 | 517.7 | 524.7 | 531.0 | 537.0 | 543.4 | 549.7 | 556.3 | 562.6 |
| | Area | Mha | 162.3 | 160.2 | 160.3 | 160.6 | 160.8 | 161.0 | 161.0 | 161.2 | 161.3 | 161.4 | 161.5 |
| | Yield | t/ha | 3.04 | 3.14 | 3.18 | 3.22 | 3.26 | 3.30 | 3.34 | 3.37 | 3.41 | 3.45 | 3.48 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 490.8 | 510.3 | 512.1 | 519.0 | 525.8 | 532.3 | 538.7 | 544.8 | 550.5 | 556.7 | 563.2 |
| | Feed use | Mt | 20.9 | 22.6 | 22.5 | 22.6 | 22.7 | 22.9 | 23.1 | 23.2 | 23.4 | 23.5 | 23.5 |
| | Food use | Mt | 397.9 | 408.8 | 413.9 | 419.6 | 424.9 | 430.2 | 435.1 | 439.8 | 444.1 | 448.7 | 453.6 |
| | Exports | Mt | 44.3 | 42.7 | 43.7 | 44.8 | 46.2 | 47.1 | 48.0 | 48.7 | 49.6 | 50.6 | 51.4 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 169.7 | 159.1 | 157.5 | 156.1 | 155.1 | 153.7 | 152.0 | 150.6 | 149.9 | 149.4 | 148.9 |
| | Price 5 | USD/t | 454.7 | 399.6 | 407.6 | 409.2 | 405.8 | 407.0 | 409.7 | 413.4 | 415.5 | 415.4 | 416.3 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 17.9 | 18.0 | 18.2 | 18.4 | 18.5 | 18.6 | 18.7 | 18.8 | 18.9 | 19.0 | 19.1 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 18.9 | 18.8 | 18.8 | 18.9 | 19.0 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.2 | 19.3 | 19.4 | 19.4 |
| | Net trade | Mt | -1.0 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.6 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 5.1 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 475.4 | 485.6 | 492.2 | 499.3 | 506.2 | 512.4 | 518.3 | 524.6 | 530.9 | 537.2 | 543.5 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 471.9 | 491.4 | 493.3 | 500.1 | 506.8 | 513.3 | 519.5 | 525.5 | 531.3 | 537.3 | 543.8 |
| | Net trade | Mt | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 164.4 | 154.3 | 152.8 | 151.6 | 150.7 | 149.3 | 147.6 | 146.1 | 145.2 | 144.6 | 143.7 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 21.6 | 21.4 | 21.6 | 21.7 | 21.7 | 21.8 | 21.9 | 21.9 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.1 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 22.7 | 22.7 | 22.7 | 22.8 | 22.8 | 22.8 | 22.8 | 22.8 | 22.8 | 22.9 | 22.8 |
| | Net trade | Mt | -1.3 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.4 |
| Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions. Average 2013-15est: Data for 2015 are estimated. | |||||||||||||
| Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer | |||||||||||||
No.2 hard red winter wheat, ordinary protein, United States FOB Gulf Ports (June/May), less EEP payments where applicable. | |||||||||||||
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries. | |||||||||||||
No.2 yellow corn, United States FOB Gulf Ports (September/August). | |||||||||||||
Feed barley, Europe, FOB Rouen. | |||||||||||||
Milled 100%, grade b, nominal price quote, FOB Bangkok (January/December). | |||||||||||||
| Source: OECD/FAO (2016), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en | |||||||||||||